A U.S. think tank warned that the United States, whose interceptor missile stockpiles have quickly dwindled due to the Iran war, could suffer a serious strategic defeat if it enters a prolonged military conflict with China.
According to the conservative U.S. think tank the Heritage Foundation on the 12th (local time), senior fellow Jim Fahy released a report on the 4th titled "Theater missile defense inventories: insufficient for a U.S.-China conflict."
The report projected that if interceptor missile stocks are insufficient, U.S. forces will find it difficult to conduct sustained offensive operations aimed at degrading the enemy's attack capability and ability to regenerate forces. It also warned that if the shortage of interceptors persists, it could lead to more than operational failure, resulting in a strategic defeat for the United States and causing long-term harm to the military and economic interests.
It stressed that in contingency plans for a confrontation with China, interceptor missile stockpiles are not a simple resupply issue but a key factor enabling U.S. forces to sustain combat and win.
The Heritage Foundation is a leading conservative U.S. think tank that released "Project 2025," a set of policy recommendations with an eye to President Donald Trump's return to power ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. While U.S. media have raised the issue of U.S. interceptor missile shortages, this report analyzed America's defensive capability on the assumption of a U.S.-China military clash.
According to the report, U.S. stocks of key interceptor missiles—including Patriot, THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense), SM-3, and SM-6—amount to less than 10% of the total needed to deter or win a prolonged, high-intensity conflict with China.
It assessed that with current stocks, defensive capability could be severely weakened just days after the outbreak of war. The report said, "At current inventory levels, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) could neutralize major U.S. bases such as Andersen Air Force Base on Guam within days of the start of a conflict."
It added that even if China used only a portion of its missiles to attack U.S. bases, the United States could exhaust its interceptor missiles within days.
The time needed to rebuild stocks was also identified as a problem. The report estimated that if the United States maintains its current production pace, it would take about 29 to 89 years to secure interceptor missile stocks at recommended levels.
Citing former U.S. Indo-Pacific Command chief Phil Davidson's comment that a U.S.-China conflict could occur by 2027, the report noted, "It appears it will take years to expand America's new missile production capacity."
Accordingly, the report recommended immediately procuring additional interceptor missiles while vastly expanding production capacity. It said stockpile goals for munitions should be set based on the worst-case scenario of a prolonged, high-intensity conflict with China.
It also argued that if an actual clash occurs, rules of engagement allowing strikes on mainland China should be preapproved, and the United States should have the capability from the outset of a conflict to destroy Chinese missiles before they are launched.
It emphasized leveraging naval power as well. It proposed supplementing ground-based interceptors by employing naval forces, so long as it does not degrade offensive firepower.
To fundamentally expand the munitions production base, it also proposed creating a dedicated account for munitions procurement and offering incentives such as subsidies and tax benefits to manufacturers.
The U.S. Department of Defense also appears to be pushing to expand procurement in response to interceptor shortfalls. Fox News' analysis of the U.S. Army's fiscal 2027 budget request found that the military sought funding to procure 2,798 PAC-3 MSE Patriot high-performance interceptor missiles and 857 THAAD interceptors, among others.
That represents a significant increase in procurement compared with the fiscal 2026 budget request for 320 PAC-3 MSEs and 25 THAADs.