U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly said the United States fully controls the Strait of Hormuz, but ships actually transiting the strait have fallen sharply from before the war, and a significant number are using routes managed by Iran. Iran's military threat and influence in the Strait of Hormuz remain substantial.
On the 12th (local time), President Trump said on the social media platform Truth Social, "The United States has complete control of the Strait of Hormuz, and will keep it that way." He likened the U.S. maritime blockade of Iran to a "wall of steel," adding, "Iran can do nothing about it, and its navy and air force have been annihilated."
However, ship-tracking data cited by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) showed that more than 130 vessels a day crossed the Strait of Hormuz before the Iran war, but only 14 did so the previous day. Of those, 11 used routes managed by Iran. The strait's average daily ship traffic was only 33 in June and 26 in July, showing that transit through the strait remains heavily depressed compared with before the war.
In particular, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler, about half of the vessels that braved the risks to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in August chose routes managed by Iran. The other half turned off their location signals while in the strait, leaving their exact routes unconfirmed. Of the 166 total transits, only two were confirmed to have used the U.S.-supported route along the Oman coast. Contrary to President Trump's claim that the United States controls the strait, this indicates Iran's influence remains significant.
Dimitris Maniatis, chief executive officer (CEO) of maritime risk-response company Marisks, said, "The southern Oman route cannot currently be considered a reliably protected corridor."
It is true the U.S. Navy is easing some pressure on energy markets by escorting several tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. But the effect is seen as limited. Ships are reluctant to use the Oman coastal route protected by the U.S. Navy for fear of Iranian attacks.
WSJ said the gap between this reality and President Trump's comments shows Iran can restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy artery, while deploying relatively modest military force. Iran has launched only a handful of drone and missile attacks on ships, but concerns about further strikes are heightening unease among shippers and insurers, discouraging vessel operations.
For shipowners, the burden is heavy because they cannot know when Iran might attack vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz again. Even without an actual attack, the mere perception of risk drives insurance premiums sharply higher.
According to insurance broker Marsh, after briefly falling following the truce in June, war-risk premium rates for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz have surged to as much as 10% of a vessel's value. That is about 40 times higher than the roughly 0.25% before the war. As a result, Marsh said, a single very large crude carrier could face $3 million to $10 million in insurance costs to make one passage through the strait.
Rachel Ziemba, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), said, "Iran is maintaining a degree of control by leveraging fear of tangible physical danger," adding, "For many global tanker operators, the potential rewards are not big enough to justify the risk."