As the Donald Trump administration searches for a pragmatic next leader for Cuba, Raúl Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of Raúl Castro, has emerged as a candidate. However, some say it is unclear whether Rodríguez can actually become the next leader, given that he has not secured sufficient support inside Cuba.
Recently, the Trump administration has been looking in Cuba for a figure similar to Delcy Rodríguez, who became interim president after U.S. forces captured then–Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January. Earlier, the New York Times (NYT) reported that the Trump administration instructed intelligence agencies to find a pragmatic figure in Cuba who could cooperate with the United States.
One of the candidates for Cuba's next leader acceptable to the United States is Rodríguez. The 42-year-old Rodríguez was born to Raúl Castro's eldest daughter, Débora Castro Espín, and the late Gen. Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Calleja. Ten years ago, when Raúl Castro paid a state visit to Paris as Cuban president, Rodríguez, then a colonel with Cuba's Interior Ministry, handled his security. He has not otherwise held an official public post.
According to the NYT on the 11th (local time), some in the United States view Rodríguez as relatively open to a capitalist mindset. Frequently spotted in expensive designer clothes, Rodríguez became known for partying at concerts in his youth, mingling with famous singers, and spending time on boats. A U.S. individual familiar with the U.S.-Cuba negotiations told the NYT that this material affluence is being taken as a signal that he is open to capitalist thinking.
Once little known publicly, Rodríguez has drawn international attention this year. He has emerged as a key figure in talks between Cuba and the United States that began early this year. After Cuba began secret negotiations with the United States to end the Trump administration's sanctions, Rodríguez separately met Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director John Ratcliffe and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Tim Rieser, who served as foreign policy aide to former Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont and met Rodríguez several times, said, "Ten years ago, he was introduced as President Castro's bodyguard, and for whatever reason and through whatever process, he is now a much more important figure," adding, "He is someone who shows how the Cuban government operates."
Rodríguez himself is said to harbor ambitions to become the next leader. According to the NYT, he did not hide from people he spoke with that he ultimately intends to become Cuba's next president.
However, there are several barriers before he can actually become the next leader. First, within the Cuban government, Óscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, Fidel Castro's great-grandson, is reportedly being discussed as a strong successor. He has recently appeared frequently on state television and in government announcements, and, unusually, has also given interviews to international media.
Above all, it is unclear whether Rodríguez has a sufficient support base inside Cuba. The NYT said on the 11th, "It is unclear whether he has the internal backing to make it happen."
His lavish lifestyle is also cited as a weakness. The NYT reported that some people were displeased, saying that in a situation where the public is suffering from severe shortages of food and medicine and from power outages, images of him driving around Havana in his grandfather's BMW and the like create a negative impression. Emilio Avila, a Cuban whom Britain's Guardian met at Havana's Revolution Square, answered "I don't know" when asked whether Rodríguez fits the spirit of the revolution.
On top of that, allegations have been raised that Rodríguez used his vast influence to spirit Cubans abroad and protected a large smuggling network that brought illegal goods into Cuba. According to the NYT, Rodríguez is suspected of helping bring into Cuba goods purchased with stolen credit cards, receiving luxury items as bribes, and allowing wanted criminals to move freely in Cuba.
The Cuban government strongly denies the allegations. Carlos Fernández de Cossío, Cuba's Ministry of Foreign Affairs Vice Minister, dismissed the alleged links between Rodríguez and the smuggling ring as "slander."