Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan on the 7th (local time) signed the "Mecca collective defense pact," which deems an armed attack on any one country as an attack on all three.
The three different countries—a Gulf monarchy, a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member and a South Asian nuclear-armed state—will protect one another within a collective defense framework dubbed a "Muslim version of NATO." Experts said Saudi Arabia, judging it hard to rely solely on the United States for security, effectively bought a new "security insurance" extending to Türkiye and Pakistan.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Türkiye President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif gathered in Mecca, the Islamic holy city, on the 7th to sign the pact. In a joint statement, the three leaders said, "This pact strengthens collective deterrence against any act of aggression," adding, "An armed attack against any one of the three countries will be regarded as an attack against all three."
Hakan Fidan, Türkiye Minister of Foreign Affairs, said in an interview with Türkiye's state-run Anadolu Agency on the 8th that the collective defense clause is "technically the same as NATO Article 5." NATO Article 5 is the collective defense clause that deems an attack on any of the 32 member states as an attack on all members.
However, the pact does not guarantee "automatic entry into war if a member is attacked." According to Minister Fidan, if the attacked country formally requests support from the others, the remaining two will decide—through consultations calibrated to the level of threat and damage—on sharing military intelligence, providing logistics support and whether to deploy troops. The three will form a committee involving foreign and defense Ministers and top military brass to establish an integrated military command structure akin to NATO. They also agreed to set up a standing secretariat in Saudi Arabia. "NATO is a massive military alliance of 32 countries, and we started with three," Minister Fidan said. "We must take very modest, concrete steps."
Experts said that, despite their different exteriors, the three countries are a military combination that neatly fills each other's gaps. Saudi Arabia has capital backed by vast oil money and the Middle East's largest defense industry market. Türkiye is, by troop numbers, the second-largest military power in NATO after the United States. It has also recently stood out in defense manufacturing such as drones, missiles and naval vessels. Pakistan, backed by the world's fifth-largest population, has a large standing army and is the only nuclear-armed state among the three. Experts said the trio could expand cooperation to joint air defense and early warning, intelligence sharing, cyber defense and even joint weapons production.
Before signing the pact, the three tested its military cooperation practicality several times. Pakistan's military has long trained Saudi forces, which lack decades of combat experience. In Sep. last year, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan already signed a separate mutual defense pact. Türkiye, newly joining this pact, is co-developing the fifth-generation fighter KAAN with Pakistan and the Akinci UAV with Saudi Arabia. Minister Fidan said, "It took about 2 years and 8 months of preparation to complete this pact."
Al Jazeera, citing experts, named Saudi Arabia as the country that most urgently wanted the pact. U.S.-made weapons account for 80% of Saudi Arabia's total arms imports. About 12% of U.S. overseas arms exports have gone to Saudi Arabia, as it bought large volumes of U.S. weapons. It also offered its bases to host U.S. troops in the Middle East.
But in this year's war with Iran, Saudi Arabia was exposed to Iran's missile and drone attacks. It is estimated that in the first 44 days after the war began, Saudi Arabia fired about 2,400 U.S.-made Patriot (PAC-3) interceptor missiles to defend itself, depleting 86% of its prewar stock. CNN reported that Saudi officials tried to restrain the Trump administration from escalating the Iran war, but felt anxiety and frustration amid attacks by Iran and the Houthi rebels on multiple fronts. Qatar-based Al Jazeera assessed that "Gulf states, through this Iran war, reached the conclusion that 'no matter how deep the partnership, there is no automatic guarantee of protection.'"
Unlike NATO, which has a clear "common enemy" like Russia, the three countries in this pact each have different adversaries they keep in check. Saudi Arabia sees Iran and Iran-aligned forces such as Yemen's Houthi rebels as the most direct threats. Türkiye's local media pointed to Israel as a bigger long-term security threat than Iran. In Feb. this year, Israel's political circles, including former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, stoked hostile sentiment by calling Türkiye "the new Iran." Pakistan, the only nuclear power among the three, has long regarded India—not the Middle East—as its main rival.
With this in mind, the three did not specify a joint adversary in the text. Minister Fidan said, "There is no document defining a common threat that we have written or signed," adding, "Any country that does not attack us is not our target." Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs also drew a line, saying, "This pact is not an attempt to form a military axis or a sectarian bloc."
The three also floated the idea of keeping the pact's door more open. Calling Egypt a "natural partner," Minister Fidan said, "I believe Egypt will join the alliance in the next phase." Some, however, noted that for Egypt to join, it would have to review the U.S. military aid it receives and its peace treaty with Israel. Karim Elgendy, a researcher at the U.K.'s Chatham House, told Al Jazeera on the 9th, "For Egypt to join, the text must ensure it preserves its aid relationship with the U.S. and does not undermine the peace treaties it has with existing allies."
Iran, seen as the most threatening presence to the three at this point, immediately pushed back after the announcement. Ebrahim Rezai, a Commissioner on the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, wrote on the social media platform X that "Saudi Arabia must know that the paper agreement it struck with Türkiye and Pakistan will not bring security," adding, "It will be the same as after decades of unilateral dependence on the United States without achieving security."
India is also watching the fallout. While maintaining close ties with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia has separately built investment and energy cooperation with India. India's local outlet the Indian Express projected that if Saudi Arabia comes to lean more on Pakistan for security, the long-term strategic relationship India and Saudi Arabia have built could be tested.
Khalid Al-Jabri, secretary-general of the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, cited the example of the Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition, which has stagnated without notable achievements since its formation in 2015, saying, "Bringing countries together in one place is different from aligning their interests," and, "The pact's success or failure depends not on the defense budget or the number of members, but on whether the signatories are truly willing to bear the expense of protecting one another."