As U.S. military weapons stocks are being rapidly depleted by the war with Iran, some analysts say a prolonged conflict could work to the advantage of China and Russia.
On the 8th, the New York Times (NYT) reported, citing some analysts, that as the war with Iran drains U.S. weapons reserves and weakens its military power, China and Russia could gain a strategic edge the longer the conflict lasts.
According to the NYT, the U.S. military has expended thousands of missiles, each costing millions of dollars, in attacking and defending against Iran. These missiles are built with precision components produced by suppliers around the world, making it difficult to ramp up output quickly. As a result, the United States has even delayed deliveries of some missiles to customers in Europe and Asia.
In particular, the United States is believed to have fewer than 1,700 Patriot missiles on hand. Although the Trump administration is working with defense contractors to increase production speed, it is expected to take more than two years just to replenish the more than 1,500 Patriot missiles used in the Iran war.
Experts see a high likelihood that some munitions shortages dating back to the Joe Biden former presidency will persist for a considerable period.
Tom Karako, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, described the depletion of munitions as a "generational extinction of conventional deterrence." He analyzed that this shift could influence decision-making in China and Russia over the coming years.
Karako said, "They could very deliberately take some action at a time of their choosing, because it will take us years to restock the weapons we've run down."
The NYT said the most direct impact of the U.S. military's weapons shortfall is showing up in Ukraine, which is at war with Russia. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the number of air-defense missiles supplied by the West this year has fallen to about one-third of last year's level.
The U.S. military has also reportedly expended a substantial number of long-range missiles such as the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) and the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM). Such long-range missiles are considered key weapons in a potential clash with China or Russia, which have far more advanced air-defense networks than Iran.
Aleksandr Kots, a pro-war Russian blogger, recently said, "The situation is developing very favorably," adding, "The fewer precision-guided munitions the United States has, the smaller the amount of weapons that will reach Ukraine."
Some expect the long-term effects of weapons depletion could be felt most acutely in Asia. The United States has long prepared for the possibility of an invasion of Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory. But after the Iran war, a large portion of the cutting-edge air-defense assets stationed across Asia, including Korea, have shifted to the Middle East.
A government official said the Ministry of National Defense's redeployment of tactical surveillance assets to the Middle East and the drawdown of air-defense forces in Asia could leave U.S. Forces Korea more vulnerable in a contingency on the Korean Peninsula than before.
Some argue that South Korea and Japan could question the credibility of America's non-nuclear deterrent and even consider developing their own nuclear weapons to secure a more certain deterrent. In Europe, with U.S. weapons production backlogs persisting, allies are already moving to buy arms from other countries.
Todd Harrison, a defense analyst at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), said, "The longer the Iran war drags on, the more severe the United States' munitions problem will become, and the larger and clearer the vulnerabilities will be."