Talks on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which has shaken global oil prices, are failing to clear the final hurdle. A draft agreement has emerged and there is basic understanding on the route coordinates, but there is no word of an actual signing. As Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has the final approval authority, has not appeared for five months, and as the Revolutionary Guard, which holds military power, clashes with the president, who oversees the administration, no faction in Iran is able to take responsibility for a make‑or‑break deal for the nation.
On the 5th local time, Iran's Foreign Ministry said it had "reached a basic understanding with Oman on the coordinates of shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz and is preparing a joint statement," according to Reuters. Under the outline Iran and Oman are reviewing, ships entering the Persian Gulf would use the Iran-side lane, while outbound ships would use the Oman-side lane. Iran is demanding that it manage inbound vessels and collect a 5–7% fee. Oman proposed 3%.
However, the United States and the international community oppose the very idea of Iran charging transit fees in international waters, making it uncertain whether they would accept any statement issued by Iran and Oman. Separately, Iran is still insisting that "the United States must first lift the port blockade and some sanctions," continuing to clash over the order of implementing the deal. No conclusion has been reached on when and in what order to address the Iranian nuclear issue, which was the original cause of the conflict.
Iran's power is now split four ways. The final approval on major agenda items rests with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Actual control over military and security lies with the Revolutionary Guard and the Supreme National Security Council. Practical talks with the United States and Oman are being led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. President Masoud Pezeshkian and the administration are responsible for executing any agreement and for the economy and livelihoods. When the negotiating team drafts text, it must go through review by the Supreme National Security Council, be accepted by the Revolutionary Guard, and then receive the supreme leader's approval in sequence. AP reported, "A pragmatic camp centered on Pezeshkian and Ghalibaf and an ultra-hardline camp that sees compromise with the United States as surrender are both claiming to represent the supreme leader's will."
Yet Supreme Leader Mojtaba has not appeared for five months. In Iran, the supreme leader holds the nation's basic policy and command of the armed forces and gives final approval to decisions of the Supreme National Security Council. The role is effectively head of state above the president. Even so, since succeeding to the position after his father, Ali Khamenei, died in March, Mojtaba has not appeared in any official setting even once. For five months, without video or audio, he has conveyed his intentions only through written messages.
President Pezeshkian said in a state TV interview on the 6th that communicating with Mojtaba is "very difficult." In an interview on the 21st of last month, he had said, "Contact with the supreme leader is gradually increasing," but within a fortnight he offered a completely opposite description of the communication status. The president acknowledged that, on the cusp of a make‑or‑break deal for the nation, the communication channel with the final decision-maker is not functioning stably.
The perception that the president is sidelined from core security and diplomatic decisions has been repeatedly leaking from within Iran's power structure. When Mojtaba approved a memorandum of understanding with the United States in June, he said, "I had a different view, but after hearing explanations and assurances from those involved, I decided to sign." At the same time, he stressed that "President Pezeshkian, as chair of the Supreme National Security Council, will be responsible for the results of the June agreement." The approval stamp is the supreme leader's, but if the agreement goes awry, the burden falls on the president and the administration.
Amid a power structure where approval and responsibility are split, rumors even spread at one point that President Pezeshkian would resign. Iran International, a media outlet with an anti-Iran stance, cited cleric Mohammad Bagher Haraji, who is linked to Supreme Leader Mojtaba by marriage, as saying, "Recently, Pezeshkian mentioned resigning 28 times, but Mojtaba dissuaded him." The presidential office and the supreme leader's office denied the report. The presidential office also has a precedent of denying a similar report about a resignation letter in May.
As the deal is delayed by communication breakdowns within the leadership, livelihoods in Iran are collapsing. According to the Statistical Center of Iran, food and beverage prices in March jumped 113.8% from a year earlier. Bread and grains rose 140%, and milk, cheese and eggs rose 116.8%. The rial has plunged, with the dollar exchange rate climbing nearly 30% from 1.5 million rials in January to over 1.94 million rials last month. The Iranian government scrapped the preferential exchange rate it had applied to some imports and, instead, is calculating at the market rate to provide cash support worth $7 (about 10,000 won) per month.
The Iranian daily Jahan-e Sanat reported testimony from employees saying, "More customers are stealing cheese, butter and meat from supermarkets or eating them inside the store." The outlet said bazaar (traditional market) merchants, who bankrolled and organized for the clerical camp during the 1979 Islamic Revolution, are joining anti-government protests in response to the currency's plunge and business woes.
Miad Maleki, a researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), told Fox News on the 6th, "The history of the regime proves that the Iranian system has been shaken more by economic problems than when its ideology is shaken."