There was a report that Iran and Oman, the coastal states, are reaching a concrete agreement on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global crude shipments. A new transit model is expected to apply in which vessels entering the strait follow routes in waters controlled by Iran, and when departing follow routes closer to waters controlled by Oman.
On the 4th, the New York Times (NYT), citing multiple anonymous Iranian officials, said Iran and Oman have made significant progress in talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Esmail Baghaei, Iran Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, also noted on the 3rd that the two countries had an exchange of maps outlining shipping lanes, suggesting an agreement was imminent.
Spokesperson Baghaei explained that, unlike in the past when, under the traffic separation scheme (TSS), ships traveled only within Omani territorial waters to prevent collisions in the narrow strait, "we are consulting with Oman on a single lane that allows two-way passage, not two or three separate lanes."
The new agreement reportedly includes charging vessels transiting the strait a fee under the name of a service charge instead of a toll. According to Iranian officials, after the agreement, ships passing through the strait will be charged a service fee under headings such as environmental impact assessments, security, and personnel deployment. The revenue collected will be split equally between Iran and Oman. NYT reported that the Iranian side used the term "service fee" in the agreement instead of "toll," a word strongly opposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
If Iran and Oman actually agree to this and officially announce a plan to impose service fees, Iran will secure a firm strategic lever in the form of control over the Strait of Hormuz. The United States has pressed for guaranteeing free passage through international waters as before the war, but in response Iran has steadfastly maintained sovereign control as a coastal state.
President Trump appears poised to claim an urgent political achievement in opening the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, by highlighting that Oman, the mediator, is a party, he may gain room to step back from international criticism that he needlessly waged a confrontation with Iran and forced payment for strait passage. On the 3rd, Trump said, "We are discussing a plan to fully open the Strait of Hormuz by the 4th," adding, "Phase one will be opening the strait, and phase two will be discussions on denuclearization."
Some voiced skepticism about the Iran-Oman agreement. Ali Vaez, deputy director of the Middle East program at the International Crisis Group (ICG), said, "From President Trump's perspective, it would be hard to accept any solution that hands Iran control of the strait," while noting, "There is also no military solution that removes Iran. Trump has to choose between a war he cannot win and a peace he finds distasteful."