Armed clashes between the United States and Iran that had continued for 13 days after the truce collapsed have entered a lull, but Iran's leadership is not rushing to negotiate.
Signals keep coming out of Iran that it will not negotiate with the United States. Esmail Baghaei, Spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry, said on the 27th (local time), "We are negotiating with Oman regarding the transit regime in the Strait of Hormuz, but we are not conducting any negotiations with the United States."
This stance runs counter to the U.S. claim that Iran wants talks. Earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump said the same day aboard Air Force One en route to Michigan that "Iran wanted to meet and we are meeting. There is a possibility of a deal." He claimed Iran had also directly requested talks through intermediaries.
Regarding why Iran is reluctant to negotiate, the New York Times (NYT) on the 28th said, "It shows that Iran's leadership is actually comfortable with the current relationship with the United States, a 'gray zone' that is neither peace nor all-out war," assessing that Iran appears to believe it holds the upper hand in talks with the United States.
Gregory Brew, senior Iran analyst at U.S. consulting firm Eurasia Group, said, "Iran believes time is on its side," adding, "It thinks it can endure greater pain and pressure than Trump, and that in the end Trump will accept a deal that meets its demands without Iran making concessions."
In particular, Iran is seeking to use the Strait of Hormuz—an area that significantly affects not only international oil prices but also the U.S. economy—as leverage in negotiations, the NYT reported. Iran's current priority is seen as gaining recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz, which the United States is unwilling to accept.
The Iran war, now at an impasse, is becoming a major political burden for President Trump. His job approval rating has fallen to its lowest level, and American public opposition to the Iran war is gradually growing. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only 33% of U.S. adults support a war with Iran.
Missile stockpiles needed for military operations against Iran are also dwindling. Earlier, on the 25th, the NYT reported that declining U.S. military missile inventories were being cited as a major concern within the U.S. government. If the war expands again, Trump's political burden could grow further, including potential deterioration in relations with Gulf allies.
However, returning to a prolonged all-out war would also be a burden for Iran. Unless a ground war breaks out, stockpiles of missiles and drones—which are effectively the entirety of Iran's military capability—could run short.
Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and an expert on Iran's military, said one reason Iran agreed to a truce was that its missile stocks were low or not readily deployable, adding, "Iran does not want to return to an all-out war against both the United States and Israel, nor does it want a war with no end in sight."
Some say Iran could resume an all-out war. Hard-liners in Iran have continually criticized the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the war. Iran International reported, "Hard-liners argue that the United States temporarily halted military operations because military pressure and disruptions to regional energy supplies exposed U.S. vulnerabilities," adding that inside Iran there is debate over whether to use the U.S. suspension of airstrikes as an opening to restart diplomacy, or to use it to intensify pressure on the United States before the next clash begins.
Meanwhile, tensions are rising again as Iran resumed attacks on U.S. bases in the Middle East on the 28th. U.S. Central Command, which oversees U.S. forces in the Middle East, said on X (formerly Twitter) that "at 5:45 p.m. Eastern time today, units of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched multiple ballistic missiles from Iran in a surprise attack on U.S. bases in the Middle East." If the United States strikes back, there is a possibility of a return to all-out war.