As Japan decided to designate a secondary capital in case a major earthquake paralyzes Tokyo's functions, critics say it is effectively a political transaction with Osaka in mind.
Japan's parliament passed a bill on the 24th allowing the designation of a second capital to replace Tokyo. The new law provides a legal basis for moving key government functions to another region when disasters or emergencies occur.
The biggest reason the Japanese government seeks to designate a secondary capital is the possibility of a major earthquake in Tokyo. The government estimates about a 70% chance of a magnitude 7-class earthquake hitting the Tokyo metropolitan area within the next 30 years.
The prime minister's office, the parliament, central ministries, and financial institutions are concentrated in Tokyo. If a large earthquake causes severe damage in Tokyo, not only policy decisions and administrative work but also financial markets could be paralyzed all at once.
A region designated as the second capital would temporarily take over part of Tokyo's political, administrative, and economic functions if a major earthquake occurs. It is not relocating the nation's capital itself but creating a "backup capital" for emergencies.
However, the government plans to use the second capital not only for disaster preparedness but also to develop it as a new economic growth hub. Officials believe Japan's population, corporations, and economic power are overly concentrated in Tokyo. Tokyo accounts for about 20% of Japan's total economic output. More than half of listed corporations have their headquarters in Tokyo, and about 30% of the population lives in the metropolitan area.
The government plans to expand infrastructure such as government facilities and transportation networks in the second capital region and to push tax incentives and deregulation to attract corporations. Osaka, Fukuoka, Hokkaido, Miyagi, and Aichi are being mentioned as candidate regions.
In political circles, however, some say the law is essentially intended to favor Osaka, the home base of Japan Innovation Party, under the pretext of disaster preparedness.
After Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party saw its decadeslong coalition with Komeito collapse last year, it brought in the Japan Innovation Party as a new governing partner. In the process, Takaichi promised to enact the secondary capital law as a condition for bringing the Japan Innovation Party into the coalition.
Designating a secondary capital has been a long-cherished initiative of the Japan Innovation Party for more than 10 years. Toru Hashimoto, the party's founder and former Osaka prefectural governor, argued around 2010 that Osaka should be made Japan's second capital.
Since the Japan Innovation Party's long-cherished initiative advanced to actual passage of a bill after the launch of the Takaichi administration, observers say the policy is a representative example of the political alignment between the two sides.
The secondary capital debate is also connected to the "Osaka Metropolis plan," which would split Osaka City into multiple special wards like Tokyo. The Osaka Metropolis plan aims to resolve the problem of Osaka Prefecture and Osaka City redundantly handling similar administrative tasks. Osaka residents have voted down the plan in two referendums so far. However, Osaka Prefecture is pushing for a third referendum next spring.
Some warn that if the secondary capital is decided to be Osaka, massive government subsidies, tax incentives, and infrastructure investment could be concentrated there. The fact that the government has not yet presented the expense needed to build the second capital or the expected economic impact is also fueling controversy.