U.S. President Donald Trump said early this year that Cuba's economy would collapse on its own, but Cuba appears to be holding out despite sweeping U.S. sanctions. One reason, observers say, is that Cuba has learned how to adapt to an energy crunch.
On the 27th, the New York Times (NYT) said, "President Trump imposed an oil blockade that pushed Cuba into the worst energy crisis in its history, with large-scale blackouts lasting nearly all day," but added, "Even so, for more than six months, the Cuban government and its people have remained resilient."
Earlier, in January, President Trump brought former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to the United States and, after seizing control of Venezuelan oil, Cuba's key crude supply, said, "With the blockade preventing supplies from Venezuela, Cuba looks like it will soon collapse."
After crude imports were cut off, Cuba faced an energy shortage marked by frequent blackouts. This month, several large outages also occurred, and on the black market, gasoline prices have soared to $30 per gallon. As a result, tourism, a major source of revenue for Cuba, is struggling to continue as global hotel chains and payment companies pull out.
However, Cuba has learned how to endure the energy crunch, the NYT reported. According to the paper, it is replacing fuel-hungry 1950s American cars with Chinese-made electric motorcycles, among other steps. In ordinary households, people are importing high-capacity lithium batteries so they can use televisions and fans during outages, and are modifying generators to run on natural gas, which is relatively easier to obtain than oil.
Taken together, these measures are effectively creating a new Cuban power grid. The NYT said that even when the government supplies electricity for only a few hours a day, people are conserving scarce fuel, adding, "This grid, led by the Cuban people rather than the state, is helping sustain society even as power is cut and fuel runs dry."
Some are learning unconventional methods to overcome the energy crunch. Palmeiro, 55, who grew up on the Cuban coast, said he learned on YouTube how to distill waste plastic to make gasoline and diesel himself. "We are looking for solutions. Economic constraints are slowly killing us, but we are holding out with all our strength and will see what happens," he said.
Some analysts say Cuba can endure the energy crunch longer. According to Jorge Piñón, a researcher at the University of Texas, Cuba is operating its grid with domestically produced oil and natural gas and solar farms built with Chinese support. He said those sources alone can cover about half of Cuba's total electricity demand, adding, "They are, quite literally, scraping together the last drop."
The Trump administration now appears to believe Cuba's economy will hold out longer than expected. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week that while the administration still wants the Cuban government to collapse, "we are prepared to take a very pragmatic approach to how we achieve that goal, and we have patience."
But even within the makeshift energy network, Cuba's inequality is evident. Most batteries, solar panels and electric vehicles belong to affluent Cubans, namely those with relatives abroad. Yeni Oliva, who works as a bartender at a restaurant, said, "The restaurant owner can afford solar panels, but life at home is too hard," adding, "It's hard even to buy milk for my 3-year-old daughter, and without electricity, food spoils quickly."
Cuba is signaling it intends to withstand sweeping U.S. sanctions in the future. Cuban Vice Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío said, "Inside U.S. political circles, there was a quiet expectation that Cuba wouldn't make it past April, but as you can see, we are still holding out," adding, "Thanks to the resilience of our society, we have not yet reached a humanitarian crisis."