The armed exchanges the United States and Iran have traded over the past two weeks have entered a temporary lull through behind-the-scenes diplomacy. The two countries, which had ratcheted up military tensions in the Middle East to a peak, have halted a head-on clash, but it remains unclear whether this lull will lead to a complete end to hostilities. Fundamental differences remain between the two sides over a cease-fire memorandum of understanding (MOU), and the powerful regional variable of Israel is entangled in the issue, raising concerns that the fuse could reignite at any time.
According to a roundup of major media reports on the 26th (local time), U.S. forces put on hold, starting on the 24th, the strikes on Iranian territory that had continued for 13 days from the 11th to the 23rd. Earlier on the 11th, after Iranian forces resumed attacks on merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. military conducted intensive bombardments targeting Iranian military facilities and key infrastructure. Iranian forces also launched ballistic missile and drone attacks on bases of U.S. allies. In the process, four U.S. service members were killed. However, as U.S. President Donald Trump did not approve additional airstrikes starting on the 24th, the clash between the two countries paused for now. Iranian forces likewise halted their retaliation operations in step with the U.S. suspension of attacks.
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said on CBS on the 26th that "the president is currently trying to allow some room for talks with Iran," and that "dialogue is continuing at every level, from working-level staff to the highest ranks." Trump also told reporters on the 24th that "the U.S. military is still loaded," and "the United States is ready to move forward, but depending on talks with Iran, there may or may not be an inflection point." Iran and Oman are also said to have made meaningful progress in vice-minister-level talks in Tehran on the 24th and 25th over merchant ship passage in the Strait of Hormuz.
Within the U.S. military, views expressing concern about military limits and security gaps over the strikes on Iran are gaining traction. Dan Caine, the U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance warned at a White House security meeting on the 24th about the risks if a full-scale war with Iran breaks out. Caine said, "Air defense assets such as Patriot interceptor missiles, which are the core of the Middle East defense network, are being rapidly depleted," adding, "Protection for our forces could become vulnerable." U.S. Central Command chief Brad Cooper also advised, "We have already struck 80% of the key bombing targets we set, and operational efficiency has reached its limit," adding, "Further airstrikes are meaningless."
Although the two countries have halted military clashes for now, they have not fully entered a dialogue phase. Trump signaled a hard-line stance that he would resume large-scale military action at any time if ongoing negotiations with Iran break down or fail to find common ground. Some analyses also suggest that if military stocks such as interceptor missiles are replenished, the halted airstrikes are highly likely to resume.
Israel's moves demanding a tougher campaign against Iran are another variable. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a Fox News interview that "the Iranian regime must be weakened enough to realize on its own that it has to stop its nuclear program and change course." As a result, if Netanyahu presses for stronger pressure on Iran in his meeting with Trump on the 28th, the situation could once again be shaken.