The Donald Trump administration signed a civilian nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia that leaves open the possibility of uranium enrichment. By effectively opening the path for Saudi enrichment, some say ties between the two countries—strained since the outbreak of the Iran war—will grow closer again.
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) said on the 22nd (local time) that Minister Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman signed a peaceful nuclear agreement known as the "123 Agreement," along with a bilateral safeguards agreement that accompanies it. While the statement did not lay out specifics on uranium enrichment and reprocessing, some assess that by potentially allowing Saudi Arabia to enrich and reprocess nuclear material on its own, the door could open to the production of weapons-grade nuclear material.
In the United States, critics say it is a "double standard" that the Trump administration effectively opened the way to enrichment for Saudi Arabia right after taking military action over Iran's uranium enrichment. Still, the prevailing view is that the agreement will further solidify U.S.-Saudi relations, which had cooled during the Iran war.
The New York Times (NYT) said, "Saudi Arabia has concluded an agreement that has long been a priority to introduce U.S. nuclear technology," adding, "The deal has become an opportunity to further strengthen ties with the United States as the entire Middle East is mired in war and uncertainty."
The United States and Saudi Arabia, once emblematic allies in the Middle East, saw their relationship start to creak after the Iran war broke out. As Iran attacked neighboring countries in retaliation against the United States, Saudi Arabia's largest petrochemical complex and other facilities were damaged. Frustrated with the United States, Saudi Arabia in May did not even allow its airspace to be used for a U.S. operation to escort merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Because of this, some assess that the nuclear agreement is a "gift" the United States handed to a disgruntled Saudi Arabia. Dina Esfandiary, Middle East geopolitics and economics lead at Bloomberg Economics, told the NYT, "It is a 'carrot' the United States offered at a time when Saudi Arabia is extremely dissatisfied with President Trump," adding, "Recently, Saudi Arabia has felt it has gained little from the United States, and this deal is a significant concession Washington provided to Riyadh."
Karen Young, a political economist at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, said the agreement gives Saudi Arabia "a basis to claim it possesses capabilities on par with, or exceeding, any of Iran's nuclear capacities, and that it achieved this under the United States' official blessing." She added that for the Trump administration, it is also "an opportunity to draw Saudi Arabia further to the U.S. side as it maps out its post-war strategy."
In particular, some interpret the nuclear deal as a move to win favor with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, who has consistently shown "nuclear ambitions." Crown Prince bin Salman believes Saudi Arabia has substantial uranium deposits and has held to a position in talks with the United States that demands the right to enrich uranium at home. In 2018, he also said, "If Iran develops nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia will follow suit."
The agreement could also bring significant economic benefits to the United States. Because it takes more than 10 years to build a nuclear power plant, the deal makes it more likely that Saudi Arabia will use U.S. nuclear technology for decades to come. In particular, American nuclear corporations, including Westinghouse, stand a strong chance of securing contracts worth billions of dollars.
Kristin Diwan, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, said, "The agreement is a major victory for the United States commercially and geopolitically," adding, "It will deliver massive revenue to U.S. corporations and pull Saudi Arabia closer to the United States." But she noted, "It will inflict considerable damage on the international nuclear nonproliferation regime."