Clashes between the United States and Iran are flaring again, but Israel, which began this war alongside the United States, appears to be pausing to catch its breath.
The United States, which had signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on war with Iran, resumed airstrikes on Iran on the 11th (local time) in retaliation after a string of ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also struck U.S. military bases in the region in retaliation, causing U.S. military deaths. However, Israel, which joined the United States in striking Iran on Feb. 28, has so far shown little movement in the current clash.
Given that Israel has already completed preparations for strikes against Iran, such a wait-and-see stance is unusual. On the 9th, Israel Katz, Israel Minister of the Ministry of National Defense, said in a speech at an air force pilot graduation ceremony, "The Israel Defense Forces are maintaining a state of alert and are fully prepared to resume military operations against Iran," and added, "If necessary to regain air superiority and eliminate threats, our forces are ready to carry out a third airstrike."
Analysts say U.S. and Gulf state involvement is behind Israel's restraint from an all-out war with Iran. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 21st, citing people familiar with the matter, "Washington asked Israel not to get involved in the fighting for the time being," adding, "Arab states in the Persian Gulf are also lobbying the United States to keep Israel from resuming airstrikes on Iran."
Nearby Gulf states worry that if Israel wades into the recent U.S.-Iran clash, Iran could strike their own energy infrastructure. In fact, during its recent confrontation with the United States, Iran attacked not only U.S. military bases in Kuwait but also airports, oil infrastructure, and power and desalination facilities.
Mediators in the region are also discouraging Israel's involvement. According to the WSJ, they argued that if Israel steps in, it will be harder for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the paramilitary organization that effectively steers Iran's decision-making, to return to peace talks. Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer in the School of Security Studies at King's College London, said, "For now, this is a fairly limited escalation, and all parties know there is a path back to the negotiating table," adding, "If you drag Israel into this, things could really get messy."
Elizabeth Tsurkov, a nonresident senior fellow at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, said, "Within the Trump administration, there is a view that Israel is an unpredictable variable that is hard to control," adding, "The current posture is to avoid escalation, and if a hard-to-control actor gets involved in such a situation, you lose control over the situation."
Israel's caution is also being read as a signal that it is waiting for Iran to come under economic pressure. According to CNN and others, Bezalel Smotrich, Israel's finance minister, said at a security meeting that day, "Our top priority in this operation is to shake and weaken the foundations of the Iranian regime's survival," adding, "The best way to do that is to bring Iran down economically." He continued, "The current situation is working in our favor. We have no reason to insert ourselves, but we are preparing for any scenario."
Still, the possibility remains that Israel could launch an all-out war with Iran at any time. The Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have been in armed conflict with Israel for more than two years, are threatening to blockade the Red Sea. In addition, if President Trump pushes for a larger-scale strike or operation to break the current stalemate, Israel's help may be needed.