As fears grow that a U.S.-Iran military clash could escalate into a full-scale war, mediators such as Qatar and Pakistan are rushing to push cease-fire talks.
On the 21st (local time), Reuters and other outlets reported that Qatar proposed that the United States and Iran observe a 10-day cease-fire and lift navigation restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Pakistan, which joined Qatar in mediation, is also seeking a diplomatic solution. Iran's Interior Minister is reported to be visiting Pakistan to hold talks with local officials.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, "Iran has conveyed its willingness to talk through mediators." Esmail Baghaei, Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, also said mediators had delivered several proposals to prevent further escalation.
However, it is unclear whether the United States and Iran will accept the new cease-fire plan. The basis for talks has effectively vanished after the memorandum of understanding (MOU) for ending the war, which the two countries signed in mid-last month, was effectively scrapped early this month.
The biggest sticking point in the negotiations is the gap in the two countries' positions on control over the Strait of Hormuz. After the MOU was signed, Iran repeatedly attacked ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without its authorization, prompting U.S. retaliation and escalating the clash into an armed conflict.
As reprisals mounted, both sides said they could not trust each other and effectively nullified the MOU.
U.S. President Donald Trump said in an interview with local media on the 13th that the MOU was meant to test Iran's negotiating posture, but Iran failed the test.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei also issued a statement on the 18th declaring the MOU void, saying, "The United States is a country whose documents are not trustworthy even when signed by the president."
With U.S.-Iran talks effectively back to square one, the situation is growing more complicated as Yemen's pro-Iran Houthi rebels join alongside Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia bombed Sana International Airport in Yemen to block a direct air route connecting Iran and the Houthis. The Houthis, after attacking the Saudi mainland, declared a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia.
As a result, there is now a possibility that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the mouth of the Red Sea, a key route for Saudi oil exports, could be shut.
The Red Sea route, along with the Strait of Hormuz, is one of the Middle East's two major energy export corridors. It is also a key bypass that allows Saudi Arabia to export oil if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz.
If the Houthis threaten the Red Sea route, Iran's geopolitical leverage—using a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a last-ditch pressure tactic—appears likely to grow further.