As the United States keeps up airstrikes against Iran for a 10th straight day and Iran moves to strike back, escalating armed clashes between the two sides, an assessment emerged that even additional U.S. strikes are unlikely to draw Iran back to the negotiating table.
On the 20th, The Washington Post (WP), citing anonymous current and former U.S. intelligence officials, reported, "U.S. intelligence agencies believe that additional military strikes like those currently underway will not significantly affect the Iranian government or soften its negotiating stance," adding, "U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded that Tehran and Washington are likely to remain trapped for the time being in an uncertain state between peace and war."
The Donald Trump administration resumed airstrikes on Iran on the 11th, triggered by the attack on civilian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and has continued its attacks for the 10th day as of today. U.S. Central Command, which oversees U.S. operations against Iran, also said on social media X, "At 4 p.m. Eastern Time (11:30 p.m. Iran time), under orders from the commander in chief, we began new airstrikes on Iran."
Iran, however, shows no sign of backing down. On this day, Iran carried out retaliatory attacks targeting U.S. military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, and the Yemen Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, declared a blockade in the Red Sea, which had served as an alternate export route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, widening the front. WP reported that the risk of the war spreading again across the Middle East is growing.
Even as armed clashes continue, both the United States and Iran left the door open to new talks. Esmail Baghaei, the Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, said at a press briefing in Tehran, "Messages from the United States were conveyed through mediators via Qatar." U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also told reporters before departing for the Philippines, "Iran continues to send signals that it wants dialogue and negotiations, but what we are responding to is their actions." However, it was not confirmed whether any actual negotiations have advanced.
Iran's internal power structure is also cited as a factor making negotiations difficult. U.S. intelligence assessed that tensions are rising between figures the United States classifies as pragmatists and hard-liners such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), whose influence is expanding. Secretary Rubio said he had personally heard from figures inside the Iranian government who support a diplomatic agreement, while acknowledging that a "tense relationship exists" with hard-liners who oppose it.
In this situation, assessments say President Trump's current strategy of steadily ratcheting up the intensity of attacks has reached an impasse. Jonathan Panikoff, who served as deputy national intelligence officer for the Near East at the National Intelligence Council (NIC), said the Trump administration appears to believe Iran will ultimately become more flexible at the negotiating table if military pressure keeps increasing, but added, "That assessment is almost certainly wrong."
In a new report led by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), U.S. intelligence agencies assessed that despite Iran losing a significant portion of its top leadership and military equipment to U.S. and Israeli attacks, the regime's survivability remains strong. The CIA had earlier, in May, projected that even if the United States imposes a maritime blockade, Iran could hold out for at least three to four months, with economic damage beginning in earnest only after that.