Attention is focusing on the background after Yemen's Iran-aligned armed group, the Houthis, declared it would blockade the Red Sea, a route for Saudi Arabia's bypass crude oil exports. Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have maintained a truce since 2022, but tensions have peaked recently as they exchanged armed clashes.
Houthi Spokesperson Yahya Saree said on the 20th (local time), "In accordance with the 'an eye for an eye' principle, we declare a naval blockade against the criminal state Saudi Arabia, effective immediately." The Houthis did not disclose specific methods for the blockade, but observers say it is highly likely they will block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea, to stop Saudi crude exports.
The Houthis' stated direct reason for the Red Sea blockade is retaliation for Saudi attacks. The Iran-backed Houthis said on the 13th that Saudi Arabia bombed Sana International Airport, which they control, and in retaliation they attacked Abha International Airport in southern Saudi Arabia. This is assessed as the most serious armed clash since the 2022 truce, and the Houthis declared the end of the truce on this occasion.
However, Saudi retaliation is only a superficial reason; Iran lies behind this situation. The spark for the clash was the landing in Sana of a Mahan Air passenger jet, an Iranian-flagged flight. Flights linking Iran and Sana had been suspended for more than 10 years, and Saudi Arabia had blocked the route, saying it could be used as a channel for weapons and military support to the Houthis.
But after a Houthi leadership delegation attended the funeral of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, direct flights linking Iran and Sana resumed for the first time in more than a decade, which provoked Saudi Arabia.
The Houthis are an armed group that launched an insurgency against government forces after the unification of North Yemen and South Yemen in the 1990s, and they have long maintained close ties with Iran. Bloomberg News reported that the Houthis receive training, military technology and weapons from Iran. Along with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis are also cited as a core force in Iran-backed "Axis of Resistance."
Since the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, Saudi Arabia has transported crude from eastern oil fields to Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast in the west via an east–west pipeline, then exported it through the Red Sea route passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Through this route, it has maintained exports of about 4.6 million barrels of crude per day, but if even the Red Sea is blocked, effectively even the bypass export route would be cut off.
Because of this, some analysis says the Red Sea blockade goes beyond simple retaliation against Saudi Arabia and is a strategy by Iran to pressure the United States through the Houthis. Reuters reported, "If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is completely closed, most of Saudi Arabia's oil exports will not be able to leave the region, potentially reducing global crude supply by about 7%," adding, "Iran has urged the Houthis to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the United States continues attacks on Iran's power facilities."
A Red Sea blockade would reduce global crude supply and drive up international oil prices, likely placing a significant burden on the Donald Trump administration, which faces midterm elections and prioritizes price stability. Muhammad al-Farrah, a member of the political bureau of Ansar Allah, the Houthis' political organization, warned on the 14th, "The United States is egging on Saudi Arabia to attack Yemen," adding, "Such provocation will not help U.S. national interests." The Houthis claimed that if the Red Sea is blockaded following the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices could soar to $200 per barrel.
Middle East expert Fawaz Gerges said in an earlier interview with Reuters, "Iran is willing to deploy all means." He analyzed that Iran is demonstrating to the United States that it can threaten two key maritime chokepoints at the same time, and that this could shake not only the U.S.–Iran standoff but the entire global energy supply chain and maritime trade order.