As the United States signaled the possibility of expanding the scope of strikes against Iran, concerns are growing that if a full-scale war between the United States and Iran resumes, U.S. President Donald Trump could face significant risks at home and abroad.
U.S. outlet Axios reported on the 15th, citing multiple sources, that during a meeting in the White House Situation Room on the 14th local time, President Trump and his aides discussed widening the scope of military operations currently limited to around the Strait of Hormuz to launch a large-scale offensive. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) also reported the same day that Trump is reviewing several military options, including deploying ground forces to seize Iranian islands and bombing the "Pickaxe Mountain" nuclear facility.
U.S. political outlet The Hill outlined risk factors, saying that if Trump abandons diplomacy and again embarks on a full-scale war with Iran, he could face significant risks at home and abroad.
◇ depletion of weapons stockpiles
If a full-scale war resumes, the first risk raised is the depletion of U.S. weapons stockpiles. The United States consumed a massive amount of munitions during the roughly 40 days of war until the truce agreement. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Brad Cooper said in May at the Senate that U.S. forces used more than 13,000 strike munitions until the truce was reached.
Other major military assets are also largely depleted. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the United States used about 50% of its Patriot missile stockpiles in this operation. The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), used to intercept short-, medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, is down by more than half, and the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) has seen more than 45% of its stockpiles consumed.
In response, the Ministry of National Defense has requested a record $1.5 trillion defense budget for fiscal 2027 and is also asking Congress for additional funds to replenish depleted weapons.
However, it is unclear whether additional funds will be secured. Even if Congress provides sufficient funding, projections suggest it will take at least four years or more to restore U.S. weapons inventories to normal levels.
The Hill said, "If President Trump again embarks on a full-scale war of the same scale as the one the United States and Israel jointly waged earlier this year, concerns could grow that the United States is weakening its ability to prepare for other threats," adding that readiness for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan could be shaken.
◇ inflation due to energy supply shortages
Price increases and the possibility of a recession due to energy supply disruptions are also cited as major risks. Explaining a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on reopening the Strait of Hormuz signed with Iran in France last month, Trump said, "With current stockpiles, we can last only about four weeks," adding, "There are reserves around the world, but they will eventually be exhausted, and at some point we will face a situation where we cannot obtain oil."
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively re-blockaded, the global energy supply crunch is likely to deepen further. Even the United States, a major oil producer, currently lacks sufficient strategic petroleum reserves to absorb the supply shock. Sina Tusi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, said, "U.S. strategic petroleum reserves remain historically low," adding, "If prolonged supply disruptions occur, the buffer capacity to absorb them has diminished compared with the previous hostilities, increasing the risk of a surge in energy prices, worsening inflation, and overall economic turmoil."
The price of Brent crude, the benchmark for international oil prices, already topped $85 per barrel on the 14th, a record high for the past month and a half. Last month, inflation eased somewhat due to the U.S.-Iran truce, but if international oil prices do not stabilize, prices are likely to soar again.
◇ negative impact on the midterms
With the midterm elections coming in Nov., if the Iran war again enters an escalation phase, Trump and the Republican Party are more likely to draw voter backlash.
U.S. voters already hold negative views of the Iran war. In a Quinnipiac University poll conducted after the United States and Iran signed an MOU for a truce and reopening the Strait of Hormuz last month, 60% of U.S. voters said the war "was not worth the cost." In a poll released early this month by the Financial Times (FT) in the United Kingdom, 58% of U.S. voters also assessed that the war with Iran was not worth the expense invested.
Alex Russell Hayes, chief data scientist at pollster YouGov, told The Hill last week, "The war was unpopular from the start and not much has changed," adding, "A significant share of voters still oppose the war."
After the truce, gasoline prices stabilized for a while, narrowing the Democratic Party's lead in party support. But if a full-scale war with Iran resumes and oil and consumer prices rise again, the situation could change. It means the war's impact on the economy, rather than foreign and security issues themselves, could decide midterm votes. For this reason, some within the Republican Party are pushing a hard line, arguing that the United States should mobilize all its military power to break Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz and, if necessary, pursue regime change, saying it should "finish the job" this time.
◇ worsening ties with Gulf allies
If the United States again embarks on a full-scale war with Iran, deteriorating relations with Gulf allies are seen as inevitable. Since the early days of the war, Gulf states have suffered retaliatory attacks from Iran, and as the conflict drags on, their discontent and fatigue have grown.
Recently, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Jordan said they shot down drones and missiles believed to have been launched by Iran. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) said two of its oil tankers were attacked, killing one crew member.
It is also a problem that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is restricting energy exports, the economic lifeline of Gulf states. If the war drags on, it will inevitably disrupt the Gulf states' economic diversification policies aimed at fostering non-energy industries such as tourism and services. According to Axios, backlash from Gulf leaders reportedly influenced Trump's decision to withdraw, a day after announcing it, a plan to impose transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz.
Given that a significant portion of the U.S.-bound investment funds prioritized by the Trump administration come from Gulf allies, worsening relations with them could be a major political and economic burden. Anna Jacobs, a Gulf adviser at the European Institute of Peace in Brussels, Belgium, and a nonresident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, said, "Each country has its own complaints about the MOU, but overall there is a mood to support it," adding, "Even the most critical countries do not want the war to continue."