The United States and Iran are colliding head-on over control of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global logistics chokepoint, throwing the Middle East—barely stitched together—back into turmoil. There are growing fears that if even the armistice memorandum of understanding (MOU) the two countries dramatically signed last month is scrapped, it could deal a massive blow to global energy security and the broader macroeconomy.
Summarizing reports from major outlets on the 12th local time, Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has led Iran's armistice talks, sent the United States a strongly worded warning of force. Posting the same day on his social media account, Ghalibaf said, "The era when unilateral agreements prevailed is over," and added, "We have already said many times that if the United States does not keep its promises, it will pay a price. Now reality is knocking on the door."
Alongside his remarks, Ghalibaf disclosed parts of Article 5 of the U.S.-Iran armistice MOU signed on the 17th of last month. The provision states that "the Islamic Republic of Iran shall do its utmost to take measures to ensure that merchant vessels can safely transit from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman for 60 days after the signing." Citing this language, Iran is touting at home and abroad that it alone holds the authority to manage and allow passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Because the period of toll-free passage is specified, the calculation is that it can exercise control once the deadline ends. This directly contradicts past remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, who had guaranteed the strait's complete opening without tolls.
The tug-of-war between the United States and Iran over the text's interpretation immediately escalated into a chain of armed clashes. Iran ambushed a civilian merchant ship transiting the strait and unilaterally declared a full blockade of the Hormuz route until U.S. military involvement in the region ends completely. The United States struck key facilities inside Iran in immediate retaliation. President Trump sharply criticized Iran for seriously violating the terms of the deal and ordered large-scale additional military reprisals. The U.S. military said it carried out airstrikes using fighter jets and drones against more than 140 key military facilities, including missile bases, in southern Iran that day.
In international diplomatic circles, the prevailing view is that this was a foreseeable disaster. Some predict that brinkmanship will intensify between Iran, which frames consolidation of control over Hormuz as essential to regime survival rather than the lifting of massive economic sanctions, and the United States, which cannot cede a vital logistics hub.