After COVID-19, prices of pre-owned high-end watches, which had been treated as alternative investment assets, began to turn down along with the drop in gold prices. High-end watches like Rolex reigned in recent years as "open-run" products that fetched premiums on resale amid ultralow interest rates and a booming asset market. But as gold, which had supported this market, slid this year and even high-end consumer sentiment cooled, prices of flagship models started to decline.
According to the Bloomberg Subdial Index, compiled jointly by Bloomberg and the pre-owned watch transaction platform Subdial on the 9th (local time), the pre-owned price of the gold Rolex Daytona model "Daytona Oysterflex," a line made famous by the late actor Paul Newman wearing it, fell 4% over three months since April. Created in 2022 by Bloomberg and the U.K. watch transaction platform Subdial, the index tracks and releases prices of the 50 most actively traded high-end watch models in the pre-owned market by transaction value. Word-of-mouth Rolex pre-owned prices, once shared only among watch enthusiasts, can be read through this index to gauge price trends like stocks or commodities.
Prices of 13 gold watch models included in the same index also largely flatlined since April. These 13 models rose by nearly an average of 9% last year. Bloomberg said, "The broad rally in pre-owned gold watches that rose in tandem with gold has effectively stopped in less than a year."
Early this year, gold prices hit a record high, climbing to around $5,597 per ounce (about 8.42 million won) as of Jan. 28. But exactly a month after peaking, on Feb. 28, the drop deepened after the United States and Israel attacked Iran. On the 9th of this month, gold transacted at around $4,100 per ounce (about 6.17 million won), down about 27% from the peak. U.S. business outlet CNBC said, "Gold has ended a bull market that lasted nearly three years and entered a bear market." Gold is a safe asset that does not pay interest. Experts analyzed that prospects for a U.S. benchmark rate hike within the year, coupled with dollar strength, have reduced gold's appeal as an investment asset.
According to Forbes' tally on the 9th, the new stainless-steel Rolex Submariner sells for $11,350 (about 17.08 million won) in the United States. By contrast, the same model in 18K gold sells for $50,900 (about 76.6 million won). The value of the gold itself in the gold version amounts to about $15,000 (about 22.58 million won) at current prices. For this reason, when gold rises, the price of new 18K gold versions and the pre-owned prices of gold models are pushed up in tandem.
Under this structure, high-end gold watches were regarded through last year as beneficiary assets of rising gold prices. Gold climbed nearly 40% during 2024 and continued to rise last year. As new watch prices then jumped quickly in line with gold and tariffs, demand shifted to the pre-owned gold watch market, where prices had risen more moderately than new products. In an interview with Bloomberg in August last year, Subdial co-founder Christie Davis said, "As new watch prices rose due to a surge in gold and a strong Swiss franc, collectors turned to the pre-owned market," adding, "There was also demand to avoid the long wait times that come with buying new models."
In fact, Swiss Patek Philippe, known as the world's most expensive watch brand, raised U.S. retail prices by 15% in September last year, and Cartier also increased most model prices by 10%. According to the U.K. fashion trade journal Business of Fashion (BoF), when the United States imposed high tariffs on Swiss products at the end of April last year, a rush to secure inventory before tariffs took effect led to a temporary surge in purchases of pre-owned Rolex and Patek Philippe. The Bloomberg Subdial Index rose 5.3% in just the first half of last year.
Afterward, the pre-owned high-end watch market, amid low rates during COVID-19, rising stock and virtual asset prices, and reduced spending on travel and dining, even drew speculative funds chasing resale arbitrage. BoF viewed that this bubble burst once in the spring of 2022 as virtual asset prices collapsed and rates jumped, the market recovered last year on the gold rally, and then entered another correction phase this year.
However, even as previously popular watches like gold Rolexes slid, prices for 10 popular models with strong brand value and scarcity, such as Patek Philippe, rose about 2% this year. Swiss asset manager Vontobel estimated that while Rolex produced about 1.2 million watches last year, Patek Philippe's output was 72,000 and Audemars Piguet's was 51,000. Experts said, "The market where any high-end watch would rise just by buying is over," adding, "Amid the prospect of rate hikes and greater volatility in the asset market, it is shifting to a selective market that weighs real demand and scarcity."
On the 9th, Bloomberg singled out the latest price correction as a buying opportunity, saying that for collectors eyeing the pre-owned gold Daytona Oysterflex, now could be "a good time to buy." While some popular models could rebound if gold rises again or spending by high-net-worth individuals revives, there was also a view that a market like the pandemic era, when premiums attached across models, would be hard to see again.