A Taiwan defense think tank assessed that if China moves to take military action against Taiwan, its first measure is more likely to be a large-scale cyberattack than an amphibious landing.
On the 10th, the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) under Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense said it discussed China's threat to Taiwan, defense posture, cognitive warfare, and cybersecurity strategy with a delegation of parliamentary aides from 14 European countries on the 8th. The institute analyzed that if China launches military action against Taiwan, it is highly likely to paralyze critical infrastructure with a large-scale cyberattack in the first stage. It means Beijing could shake government functions and the foundations of daily life before fully committing military power.
Since the war in Ukraine, China's military has been assessed to have trained cyberwarfare personnel and security experts and strengthened disinformation operations using artificial intelligence. For example, it could fabricate and distribute a fake video of a leader delivering a speech with AI, then exploit the information vacuum until the truth is verified. The institute noted that information manipulation through social networking services does not stop at spreading lies, but operates in a way that amplifies internal social anxiety and distrust.
Taiwan's government networks have already been exposed to multiple large-scale cyberattacks. In a report submitted to the legislature in Apr., Taiwan's National Security Bureau said that in the first quarter of this year, 173.28 million instances of information intrusion activity were detected on government service networks. During the same period, the number of abnormal accounts detected by Taiwan authorities reached about 13,000, and contentious information totaled about 860,000 items. The National Security Bureau assessed that China may intend to expand its capabilities for information collection and surveillance and data theft.
However, the institute predicted that even if China pushes ahead with war and seizes Taiwan's semiconductor wafer manufacturing facilities, it would lose its links to the global semiconductor ecosystem, including the Netherlands, Japan, and the United States. In other words, advanced semiconductors are not products that can be made by securing a single factory. With equipment and materials, design, and technical support interlocking across multiple countries, occupying a plant and controlling a production network are entirely different matters, the analysis said.
Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan can hardly expect support from a collective security system like NATO, and as an island, outside resupply would be difficult once a war begins. However, the Taiwan Strait serves as a natural barrier, and the institute assessed that China's currently known amphibious equipment and troop strength are insufficient for a full-scale invasion. The Taiwan government is inspecting shelters, securing wartime energy supply routes, and boosting its response capabilities by expanding cyber personnel and focusing on infrastructure defense. The institute cited international support, Taiwan's own level of preparedness, and the confidence, intent, and capabilities of China's military as variables that will determine safety in the Taiwan Strait going forward. It also viewed unofficial cooperation with other countries as likely to become even more important, given that China's threat targets not only Taiwan but the entire surrounding region.