As oil prices rise due to the Iran war and major U.S. oil corporations are expected to post record-high results, conflict is likely to intensify between U.S. President Donald Trump, who has criticized oil corporations for "price gouging," and the industry.
On the 9th (local time), the Financial Times (FT) in the United Kingdom reported that Exxon Mobil and Chevron are expected to post second-quarter net profits of $15 billion (about 23 trillion won) and $9.7 billion (about 15 trillion won), respectively. That is more than triple the previous quarter, interpreted as a wartime windfall from higher prices for crude, diesel and jet fuel.
FactSet, which compiles market forecasts, estimated that U.S. refiner Marathon Petroleum will log its best performance since 2022, when Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine triggered global inflation. Another refiner, Valero, is also expected to report strong results.
Such strong results by oil corporations are likely to irritate President Trump. With midterm elections in November approaching, Trump, who cannot ignore prices, has recently criticized oil corporations for reaping excessive profits.
Last month, on the social media (SNS) platform Truth Social, Trump said, "Major oil corporations are buying crude much more cheaply, yet gas station prices are not falling by the same amount," adding, "In the end, consumers are being hurt by corporations' price gouging. I have directed the Ministry of Justice to immediately look into this matter."
As the Iran war drags on, retail gasoline prices in the United States have risen sharply. According to the motorists' group AAA, the average U.S. gasoline price was $3.8 per gallon, up about 25% from a year ago, while diesel was $4.8 per gallon, up 30%.
However, the improvement in the oil industry's performance is largely due to the Iran war sparked by the Trump administration. Iran effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, causing one of the largest oil supply disruptions in history. With exports from the Gulf region, which account for about 20% of global demand, halted, fuel prices surged.
Kevin Book of energy research firm ClearView Energy Partners said, "Investors will see revenue, but the government will see a deficit," adding, "The administration desperately wants to lower fuel prices in some form ahead of the election, but the cause of the price rise is the war, not the energy industry."
With talks between Iran and the United States on shaky ground, oil prices are expected to remain elevated for the time being. The United States and Iran recently exchanged military blows over control of the Strait of Hormuz, and as a result, ship traffic through the strait, which had recovered to 30 to 50 vessels a day, fell back to the teens. CNN reported that, according to ship-tracking site MarineTraffic, at least 13 merchant ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours.
Citing experts, the FT said, "As long as uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz persists, fuel prices are expected to remain high," adding, "Even if crude supply from the Gulf region increases, it will take time for crude to flow into the refined products market and bring down prices for fuels such as gasoline and diesel."