As control over the Strait of Hormuz emerges for Iran as a bargaining chip more powerful than nuclear weapons, forecasts are growing that the Middle East conflict could drag on.
On the 8th (local time), Reuters reported, "Iran's leadership now sees the Strait of Hormuz as the most powerful bargaining chip it can use in various disputes with the West, and as the reason the United States will have no choice but to end the war."
Within Iran's leadership, the view is dominant that it cannot give up the Hormuz card. Ebrahim Azizi, a member of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said on social media (SNS) to the United States, "Acknowledge the new Iranian order in the Strait of Hormuz. That is the only way forward."
Two senior Iranian officials told Reuters, "Iran's stance to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz carries the risk of leading to another prolonged conflict with countries around the world, but there is almost no dissent within Tehran."
Another source also said, "The Hormuz issue is Iran's 'golden weapon,' and the United States is now trying to take it away from Iran," adding, "But that will never be possible."
◇ Iran confirms the power of a Hormuz blockade
Iran has warned for years that it could blockade the Strait of Hormuz, but it had been reluctant to actually do so. That is because of concerns that a blockade of the strait would trigger backlash from neighboring Gulf countries and global energy-consuming nations, deepening international isolation and ultimately dealing a major blow to its own economy.
However, on Feb. 28, after U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, Iran effectively cut off passage through the Strait of Hormuz, shaking the global energy supply chain. The United States, unable to endure a surge in international oil prices directly tied to inflation, began negotiations with Iran, allowing Iran to experience the impact of a Hormuz blockade.
Some assess that, for Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has become a more important issue than nuclear weapons. A senior source told Reuters, "If Iran backs down on the Hormuz issue, President Trump will further escalate demands not only on the nuclear issue but also in other areas, such as Iran's possession of conventional missiles," adding, "That would mean surrender, which is unacceptable for Iran."
A senior Iranian official said, "We will not even think of starting nuclear talks until the United States recognizes Iran's full control over the Strait of Hormuz."
According to the Financial Times (FT), Ellie Geranmayeh, an analyst with the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), said, "Iran will not hand over the lever of Hormuz, a 'weapon of mass disruption' (a play on words likening it to weapons of mass destruction), until a comprehensive agreement is reached on easing U.S. economic sanctions."
◇ The Hormuz issue that the U.S. also cannot give up
The Hormuz issue is something neither the United States nor Iran can give up. The FT analyzed, "Ahead of the midterm elections, the United States is trying to quickly resume the passage of ships through the strait to ease the energy crisis, while Iran will not tolerate any weakening of its control over the strait."
Even after signing an MOU with the United States, Iran declared it would collect transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, seeking to make clear it holds control over the strait. The United States, on the other hand, viewed that freedom of navigation must be guaranteed in the Strait of Hormuz and has recommended that ships use routes close to Oman.
The reason Iran and the United States have recently resumed trading blows is also related to the Strait of Hormuz. After merchant ships were hit in succession in the strait in what were believed to be Iran-linked attacks, the United States on the 7th resumed airstrikes, calling it "a violation of the cease-fire agreement by Iran." Immediately after Iran struck a nearby Gulf country hosting U.S. military bases in retaliation, the United States continued airstrikes the next day.
Initially, the United States and Iran were expected to resume follow-up talks on the 12th, after the funeral procedures for Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were completed, but as armed clashes continued, the very prospect of talks became uncertain. President Trump, speaking to reporters ahead of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit, said, "I think the memorandum is over. I don't want to deal with them."
As tensions between the two countries escalated, the strain in the Strait of Hormuz also rose again. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) raised the threat level in the Strait of Hormuz to "severe." A shipping industry official told the FT, "This will affect ships' willingness to brave the risks and pass through the route."