The provisional U.S.-Iran deal reached on the 17th of last month entered an effective dismantling process after 20 days. U.S. President Donald Trump, asked by reporters at the NATO summit in Ankara, Türkiye, on the 8th (local time) about the 60-day provisional truce with Iran, said, "It seems over for me," adding, "I don't want to deal with them."
A day earlier, the U.S. military carried out airstrikes on Iran's air defenses, coastal radars, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats, saying it was retaliating for merchant ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. These were the tools Iran had used to threaten merchant vessels in the strait. The fact that the United States struck the operational assets disrupting strait transit first, rather than key facilities on Iran's mainland, is seen as a move to neutralize maritime pressure cards Iran could use going forward.
According to the AP, Trump at the NATO summit framed the previous day's U.S. airstrikes as retaliation for Iran's attacks on merchant ships and continued his remarks. In a subsequent appearance with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, he criticized, "As I see it, dealing with them is just a waste of time."
As of the 8th, the two countries had not yet officially declared the talks collapsed. Trump left the door open, saying, "U.S. representatives can continue to negotiate." But experts said that since the president publicly called this round "a waste of time," the political space for working-level officials to offer concessions has narrowed. Even if the working-level channels keep talking, it is interpreted to mean the provisional deal has lost its political authority.
The United States and Iran had entered talks premised on a cease-fire. The structure was to halt military clashes first, allow Iran to permit ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz, have the United States authorize Iran's oil sales, and in the meantime have both delegations prepare for full negotiations. The two countries were to begin final agreement talks on the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a reduction of Iran's nuclear program after the funeral of former Supreme Leader Khamenei. However, since the 7th the two sides have resumed military clashes, increasing the likelihood the talks will remain largely symbolic, the AP reported.
The previous day's U.S. military response also went beyond prior warning levels. U.S. Central Command said the airstrikes on the 7th targeted Iran's air defenses and radars, and more than 60 small boats operated by the Revolutionary Guard. Alongside military retaliation, the United States also clawed back economic compensation. Immediately after the merchant ship attack, the United States had allowed the sale of Iranian crude and petrochemicals under a general license, which it has now revoked. The license was an exception opened under the provisional deal to let Iran sell oil openly. The structure was that if Iran guaranteed strait transit, the United States would ease the noose on oil sales, but after the merchant ship attacks, Washington took that compensation back.
Iran also expanded its retaliatory scope beyond merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz to U.S. military hubs in the Gulf region. Bahrain, which Iran struck on the 7th, is home to the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet. U.S. Army forces are also stationed in Kuwait. As Iran said that day it "targeted facilities related to U.S. forces in the two areas," the clash is expected to expand from a dispute over Hormuz transit to the defense of U.S. bases stationed in the Gulf.
Iran's internal politics are also shifting rapidly, marked by the funeral and the U.S. airstrikes. The clashes took place during the funeral period for former Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian even attended Khamenei's funeral held in Najaf, Iraq. But Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei's son who is mentioned as a possible new supreme leader, did not appear throughout the funeral. The AP reported, "There is speculation he was injured in the strike that killed his father and is still in hiding." Attendees at Khamenei's funeral repeatedly chanted aggressive slogans aimed at President Trump and Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, signaling a will to resist.
Iran's leadership also faces a situation where it is hard to back down immediately in the face of intensified U.S. airstrikes. Experts said, "In a moment when the funeral, succession vacuum, and anti-U.S. sentiment overlap, accepting U.S. pressure could be seen internally as a weakness." Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of Iran's parliament, said on X, "The era of harassment and extortion is over. You gain nothing that way. We will not yield."
For the United States, with merchant ship attacks and threats to U.S. facilities ongoing, it is burdensome to take the lead in restoring Iran's oil sales authorization or returning to a cease-fire deal. For that reason, experts saw a high likelihood that, rather than immediately declaring a formal breakdown, the two sides will enter an unstable phase in which military clashes and working-level contacts proceed in parallel. There is speculation the confrontation could drag on not by escalating straight into a full-scale war, but through repeated patterns of threats to shipping in Hormuz, alerts at U.S. bases in the Gulf, and additional limited U.S. airstrikes.