In the United States, where gun accidents, fentanyl addiction, and chronic diseases tied to obesity persist, Americans' risk of death has fallen to the lowest level since statistics have been kept.
The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) said on the 2nd that last year's U.S. age-adjusted death rate was 689.2 per 100,000 people, down 4.6% from the previous year. It is lower than 2019 (715.2), just before the COVID-19 pandemic. The country not only emerged from the pandemic shock but also set a new record low.
There is a part of these statistics that at first glance seems inconsistent. The actual number of people who died in the United States last year was 3,094,593, about 22,000 more than the previous year (3,072,666). In a society with many older adults, the total number of deaths rises even if each person becomes healthier. As the U.S. population continues to grow and the proportion of older adults increases, the number of Americans who die each year is rising.
Statisticians strip out the effects of aging and compare people of similar ages to measure how much less likely Americans of the same age are to die than before. The resulting figure is called the age-adjusted death rate. By this metric, the United States last year saw the risk of death decline for virtually all age groups, from infants to those 85 and older.
By age group, the death rate for those 25 to 34 fell 10.8%, from 124.5 per 100,000 to 111.1, the largest drop. The number of deaths in this age group decreased by 6,089 in one year, from 57,827 to 51,738. Those 15 to 24 fell 7.9%, and those 85 and older fell 7.6%. The U.S. age-adjusted death rate surged to 879.7 in 2021, the peak of COVID-19, then fell for four straight years, down 21.7% compared with 2021. Bloomberg said, "Because this decline is seen in nearly all population groups, it is hard to view it as a statistical illusion created by a particular generation or by aging."
In particular, the number of drug-related victims that had driven up the death rate among young people fell sharply. In the 2020s in the United States, fentanyl, a synthetic drug dozens of times stronger than painkillers, spread mixed into illegal drugs, sending overdose deaths soaring among younger people. But last year, by NCHS tally, drug overdose deaths were 69,973, about 14% fewer than the previous year (81,313). Deaths related to opioids, including fentanyl, fell about 19%, from 55,296 to 44,564. NCHS said overdose deaths have declined for three straight years.
COVID-19 deaths are also dropping quickly. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), COVID-19 deaths fell by more than half, from 47,541 in 2024 to 20,685 last year. Compared with 2021, when about 460,000 died, the figure is down more than 95% in four years. As vaccines and treatments spread and immunity built through infections, the period when COVID-19 was driving up the overall U.S. death rate is effectively ending. With the early 2020s shock—when COVID-19 and fentanyl were simultaneously increasing deaths—subsiding, Americans' risk of death has returned to the long-term downward trend from before the pandemic.
However, experts stressed that these statistics are not evidence that Americans' lifestyles have improved. Deaths from heart disease, the No. 1 cause of death, were 694,708, up 1.6% from the previous year. Cancer, the No. 2 cause, was 622,832, up 0.5%. Deaths from influenza and pneumonia rose 17.4%, moving up from 11th to 8th among causes of death. Suicides fell one spot from 10th to 11th. The adult obesity rate in the United States is 40.3% by CDC National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey criteria, and firearm deaths in 2024 totaled 44,447 by CDC count.
Gender- and race-based gaps in death rates also persisted. Last year, the age-adjusted death rate for men was 811.1, 39% higher than for women (582.9). Black people were highest among major racial groups at 869.0, and rates rose for American Indians and Alaska Natives from 786.1 to 803.8, and for Native Hawaiians and other Pacific Islanders from 682.7 to 746.0.
Mark Mather, vice president at the Population Reference Bureau (PRB), said that as drug overdose deaths among young people continue to decline, U.S. life expectancy is expected to rise. NCHS said the figures are preliminary and could be adjusted as late-reported accident and overdose deaths are added. Robert Anderson, chief of mortality statistics at NCHS, said, "Even if U.S. life expectancy reaches 79, it still falls well short of the upper tier of advanced countries," adding, "Most advanced countries have life expectancy above 80."