Japan's number of deaths is increasing five years faster than the government forecast, putting not only the medical system but also funeral infrastructure such as crematoriums on alert. Analysts say deaths are rising faster than projected because life expectancy has not increased as much as expected.
According to Nikkei on the 4th (local time), Japan recorded 1,589,489 deaths last year. That is more than 70,000 higher than the figure projected in 2023 by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS).
IPSS had expected 1.51 million deaths last year. But actual deaths neared 1.59 million, approaching the institute's worst-case projection of 1.61 million. It had also expected the point when annual deaths would exceed 1.58 million to come in 2030, but that level was already reached last year. That is about five years earlier than the government expected.
Experts cite the fact that life expectancy did not rise as much as expected as a major reason for the increase in deaths. The government's population outlook assumes life expectancy will continue to rise, but actual life expectancy recovered more slowly after COVID-19.
Average life expectancy for Japanese men rose for nine consecutive years through 2020 but fell in 2021 and 2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It rebounded slightly in 2023, but the increase halted in 2024, and it fell below the 2020 level. Women's average life expectancy showed a similar trend.
The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare said the impact of COVID-19 has lasted longer than expected, making it difficult for mortality to easily return to pre-pandemic levels. It added, however, that it is still too early to conclude this is a long-term shift.
An increase in deaths from old age also appears to have played a role. In particular, some patients who postponed hospital visits during the pandemic may have seen their underlying conditions worsen, observers say.
As deaths rise faster than expected, the burden on medical and welfare systems is also growing. Demand for medical and caregiving services is surging, but there are concerns that nursing staff and legal services to support this are in short supply.
Fujinami Takumi, a researcher at the Japan Research Institute, said, "Demand for social infrastructure related to death is increasing faster than expected," and added, "The burden on medical services and elder care systems could also grow."
Funeral infrastructure is also reaching its limits. The Tokyo metropolitan government projected that without countermeasures, existing crematoriums alone will struggle to meet demand around 2035.
Nikkei said the case also exposed limits in the Japanese government's population estimation method. Japan projects future population based on the national census every five years, but recently, not only deaths but also births have strayed far from projections.
Researcher Fujinami said, "Society can change a lot in five years," and added, "At a minimum, at the national level, there needs to be a shorter cycle than now for updating population projections."