Heads of major countries' Central Banks warned in unison that artificial intelligence (AI) could bring unexpected shocks to the overall economy, including financial and labor markets.
According to Reuters on the 1st (local time), at the European Central Bank (ECB) annual Central Bank Forum that wrapped up in Sintra, Portugal, AI emerged as the central theme running through every agenda item, including immigration, climate change, and financial supervision.
Kevin Warsh, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), who made his first international appearance at this forum, also devoted the most time to AI.
Warsh said, "This is a time when the most consequential change in our lifetimes for national economies is underway," adding, "When the internet first appeared, who would have predicted that 1.5 million jobs for Uber drivers would be created? We are only opening the first chapter of this revolution."
Asset bubbles and market manipulation were cited as representative risks that could threaten financial stability. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned of short-term downside risks, saying the scale and speed of the current AI investment boom resemble past periods of major asset bubble formation, such as Britain's railway investment boom in the 1840s, the asset bubble of the 1920s, and the dot-com bubble.
Torsten Slok of Apollo Global Management assessed that capital expenditures (CAPEX) concentrated in AI infrastructure investment have already lifted U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by 1 percentage point, and that the bubble in AI-related stocks formed on that basis has begun to correct in recent weeks.
He warned, "Whether AI performs beyond expectations or falls short, financial stability can be threatened," adding that no scenario is safe.
Itay Goldstein of the University of Pennsylvania noted, "AI algorithms are actually showing the ability to learn price-manipulation methods from each other, inflate bubbles, and trigger sharp drops," adding, "This can have a far more serious impact on financial stability."
Concerns were also raised that if AI is deeply used in credit ratings and loan screening, the existing financial supervision framework may not function properly.
Tobias Adrian, director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Monetary and Capital Markets Department, said, "How can supervisors evaluate the lending decisions of AI agents?" adding, "They are practically no different from a black box, making it hard to explain why such decisions were made, and this will become a core supervisory task."
Sarah Breeden, deputy governor of the Bank of England (BOE), proposed introducing safeguards similar to deposit insurance to protect financial institutions vulnerable to cyberattacks.
Tiff Macklem, governor of the Bank of Canada, said, "The internet also created new industries that no one anticipated, but we did not avoid the dot-com bubble," adding that the AI investment boom likewise cannot rule out the possibility of a correction after overheating.