The United States and Iran reached the 14th day since signing on the 17th of last month to conclude a final peace agreement within 60 days, but they have yet to even enter core talks such as curbing the nuclear program and handling enriched uranium. During roughly a quarter of the 60-day negotiating window, the two countries only sparred over what each would implement before the main negotiations.
According to major outlets on the 1st, the U.S. and Iranian delegations stayed in Doha, Qatar, on the 30th of last month but did not sit at the same negotiating table. Jared Kushner, son-in-law of U.S. President Donald Trump, and Steve Witkoff, special envoy for the Middle East, held talks that day with mediators including Qatar Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in place of Iran.
The same day, the Iranian delegation also came to Doha to discuss implementing the deal, including the return of frozen funds. But Esmail Baghaei, Iran Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, said on the 30th that no talks of any level with the U.S. side were scheduled. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance said in an interview on the 30th, "Iran says there are no peace talks, but there are technical talks underway between the U.S. government and Iran," adding, "It's a negotiating tactic I don't understand and a Persian-style ploy." Reuters and Al Jazeera reported that the sides only exchanged messages through Qatari mediation.
The two countries have not faced each other for nearly 10 days after holding one round of in-person talks in Switzerland on the 21st and 22nd of last month. In the meantime, on the 27th and 28th of last month, the U.S. and Iran traded airstrikes. Iran fired ballistic missiles and drones at Kuwait's Al Salem Air Base and the headquarters of the U.S. 5th Fleet in Bahrain. The Doha talks, held right after the truce wobbled, also amounted to indirect consultations with mediators instead of a direct meeting.
Experts traced the reason the two countries could not open talks even while gathered in one city to the 14-point memorandum of understanding signed on the 17th of last month. The memorandum set out conditions that the U.S. and Iran must first carry out before final negotiations. Specifically, it stipulated that only after a halt to military actions on the fronts including Lebanon, the lifting of the U.S. maritime blockade of Iran, free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, waivers on sanctions against Iranian oil, and permission to use overseas frozen funds begin, could the sides enter final talks on nuclear and sanctions issues. It gave each side grounds to postpone the main negotiations at any time if it judged the other had not kept its promises.
The U.S. demanded that Iran guarantee the safe passage of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz before it could grant economic benefits such as unfreezing funds. Iran countered that the U.S. must lift the blockade and sanctions and actually allow use of frozen funds before additional talks can begin. The U.S. is signaling compensation after implementation, while Iran is prioritizing talks after compensation, each telling the other to move first, Reuters reported.
Of the five key conditions—halt to military action, lifting the maritime blockade, free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, waivers on sanctions against Iranian oil, and permission to use overseas frozen funds—only the oil sanctions waiver has entered implementation. On the 21st of last month, the U.S. granted a 60-day waiver on sanctions against exports of Iranian oil. According to tanker-monitoring group TankerTrackers, Iran exported 50 million barrels of crude within two weeks of the blockade easing, giving its economy some breathing room.
On the unfreezing of funds, Iran said they were "released," while Qatar said they had "not yet been handed over." Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on the 29th of last month that $6 billion (about 9.3 trillion won) out of the $12 billion (about 18.5 trillion won) of Iranian funds tied up in Qatar would be released. Qatar Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari on the 30th confirmed the funds had not yet been transfered to Iran and would be transfered depending on progress in the talks. The U.S. position is that the money can be used only to buy U.S. food for Iran. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran parliament speaker and head of the negotiating team, refuted in a state TV interview on the 30th President Trump's claim that the released funds would be used only to buy U.S. grain, saying, "That is not true," and, "Under the memorandum, $12 billion will go to the Central Bank and can be used in any currency and for purchases of any goods." Experts noted that in the text the parties should have distinguished three stages as separate provisions: approving the release of Iran's tied-up funds, the money actually moving to Iran, and Iran freely spending it where it wants. The two sides are now each bundling or splitting these three stages in ways advantageous to them to claim they have "implemented the deal."
In the Strait of Hormuz, ships have begun to sail again, but for 14 days Iran and the U.S. have repeated differing lines over how to manage order. The memorandum required Iran to guarantee safe and free passage of commercial vessels for only 60 days. It left subsequent management methods to be discussed by Iran and Oman. Citing this clause, Iran is arguing it can impose tolls "after mid-August when the 60 days end." The U.S., by contrast, insists that "toll-free free passage is the principle." Deutsche Welle reported that the U.S. seeks to restore the prewar free-passage order, while Iran is trying to cement the strait control it gained during the war into a new management regime, setting up a confrontation.
The Lebanon front is also cited as a main factor that has blocked the start of talks for nearly two weeks. Article 1 of the memorandum stipulates that not only the U.S. and Iran but also their allied forces must stop military actions on all fronts, including Lebanon. But Israel maintains that it is not a party to the deal and that the Lebanon front is not included in this agreement. Defense Minister Israel Katz said the Israel Defense Forces would continue to be stationed in southern Lebanon, which they occupied after the war began. Each time Israel and Hezbollah, neither of which is at the negotiating table, clash, Iran can delay nuclear talks by saying the U.S. violated the deal.
Even if the preconditions are cleared, tougher nuclear sticking points remain. Iran is estimated to hold about 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium. That falls short of weapons-grade 90%, but once past this point, the pace of reaching weapons grade accelerates. The memorandum called for processing this enriched material by diluting it on-site under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) supervision, but Iran refuses to ship it abroad. On the timing of inspections, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said, "Inspections will happen soon," while Iran countered they would be possible "only after a final agreement with the U.S." The U.S. has also not settled how to execute an Iran reconstruction and economic development plan of at least $300 billion (about 462.9 trillion won) to be prepared with Gulf partners.
Victoria J. Taylor, Director General of the Atlantic Council's Iraq Initiative, said, "Even if this deal goes well, it will amount to a temporary and fragile understanding that prevents a resumption of war only through the end of the current administration's term."