In Japan, a prediction market app that has users guess real-world outcomes for points instead of cash is spreading rapidly, especially among men in their 20s. Mirai-ma, launched in Nov. last year, climbed to become Japan's largest prediction market platform, attracting about 1 million monthly active users just seven months after launch.
Prediction markets trade the occurrence or nonoccurrence of specific events in the form of contracts. In its official app description, Mirai-ma advertises, "Join daily quizzes about the future and choose the answer you expect, and points will accumulate." Because of this, some see it as a collective intelligence service or part of Fintech, but others argue it is no different from gambling. Leading market players include the U.S.-based Polymarket and Kalshi. The two platforms' transaction volume is estimated to have surpassed $130 billion (about 200 trillion won) this year, up from $50 billion (about 77 trillion won) last year.
Mirai-ma users earn points by opening an account, watching ads, and playing in-app games, then can bet those points on outcomes such as "Japan's national soccer team's probability of beating Brazil." They select either binary or multiple choice, and if they are correct, points accumulate; those points can be used for later bets or exchanged for digital rewards like Amazon gift cards. They can also be used like cash right away in major easy-payment options popular among people in their 20s, such as PayPay and Rakuten Pay. This structure tapped into Japanese culture, where point-accumulation habits are more deeply rooted than in Korea. Recently, beyond sports, it has expanded to betting on stock price movements, political schedules, and even reality show outcomes, and is becoming a generational culture. As users increased, rival app Poip released a similar service in March, and mobile game developer Gumi launched a similar point-based prediction game this month.
Global platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi exchange cash or cryptocurrencies directly. But in Japan, prediction market platforms that take bets in cash or cryptocurrencies are illegal. Polymarket and Kalshi are currently blocking or preventing bets by Japanese users and have not conducted official marketing in Japan. Because Japan punishes habitual gambling with up to three years in prison, most attempts to access via a virtual private network (VPN) are also blocked.
Japanese startups borrowed an indirect structure used in domestic offline pachinko. Just as pachinko parlors give winners tokens that they exchange for cash at a separate shop across the street, Japan's prediction market apps sidestepped gambling rules with a point system that does not exchange cash directly. Mirai-ma founder Adachi Keita told Bloomberg, "Since gambling real money is impossible, we built the platform on Japan's strong gaming and point-accumulation culture." Adachi founded the Blockchain startup Masentic with investment from famous Japanese soccer player Honda Keisuke. He said, "Mirai-ma is profitable through ad viewing and app download fees, but compared with crypto-based global operators that earn millions of dollars from transaction and settlement fees, the margin is very small."
Mirai-ma's recognition rose sharply starting with the House of Representatives election in Feb. this year. In this election, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who emphasized economic security and national strength, recorded high support among young male voters in their 20s. They drew attention from Japan's political circles by actively participating on Mirai-ma in picking winners by district. Masah Suganuma, a game analyst and former Konami manager, said, "Japan still has an arcade market where people spend massive amounts of money," adding, "Overseas corporations know Japanese consumers like this kind of thing and clearly see potential."
No government agency in Japan has yet stepped up to oversee prediction markets. The Ministry of Justice refused to comment on legality, saying it would review individual cases against the Criminal Act. The Securities and Exchange Surveillance Commission, which oversees financial products, declined to comment. To curb illegal gambling, the Japanese government has restricted gambling to pachinko and local lotteries. Horse racing, boat racing, and bicycle racing are run under strict state control. Poip founder Shirasaka Takanori argued, "There is no risk that users will lose assets with real value, so it does not fall under cash gambling regulations."
Even so, pachinko, which is considered to be in decline, is so active that its market size is expected to exceed $100 billion (about 153.5 trillion won) in 2024, giving the Japanese government a headache. That is larger than the combined size of the entire gambling markets in Las Vegas in the United States and Macau in China. Yamaji Hiromi, CEO of Japan Exchange Group, which operates the Tokyo Stock Exchange, told Bloomberg that "betting on future events is broadly regarded as gambling," noting that running a real-name prediction market would be difficult and that identifying and monitoring insider trading would also be a challenge.
Filtering out minors is another variable. Polymarket and Kalshi require strict age limits, allowing only users 18 and older. Japanese point services have no age restriction. Law firm Ushijima & Partners noted, "As with the introduction of pachinko, the industry will likely need several years of dialogue and a legislative maintenance process."