Kurt Campbell, former U.S. deputy secretary of state, said China is the winner in the conflict between the United States and Iran. He also noted that inflation will drag on and turmoil in Asia, including Japan, will intensify because of gaps in U.S. forces.
In an interview published on the 30th (local time) with Nikkei, the former deputy secretary said, "The place where the U.S.-Iran conflict has the greatest impact is Asia, including Japan."
Comparing the impact of reduced oil and natural gas supplies due to the Middle East situation with the past COVID-19 pandemic, he said, "We have concluded that headwinds such as inflation will last longer than expected," adding, "Energy stockpiles need greater resilience."
He added, "China has room in both energy procurement and stockpiling, so you could say it is one of the winners in the U.S.-Iran conflict," and "It is clear that China is the most successful country at navigating the storm of destabilization in the global economy."
Campbell also expressed concern about the shift of U.S. military power from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East. "It will be difficult to redirect (U.S. military capabilities) to the Indo-Pacific right away, and it could have long-term effects," he said, assessing that "the gap in U.S. forces burdens allies in Asia, including Japan."
He added, "Strengthening cooperation among allies has become necessary, and Japan is working to improve relations with South Korea," and "The system that the United States, Japan and countries across Asia have built over decades has brought the great benefits of peace and stability."
He emphasized, "Even if there are periods of turmoil, I am confident the U.S. role in Asia will remain extremely important thereafter."
Campbell also voiced concern about the Donald Trump administration's China policy. "There are several factions regarding the Trump administration's China policy—some think it is a matter of life and death for the United States, while others see it as a chance to make big money as a family business," he said. "At this point, the latter group is on the rise, and some restrictions on technology transfer to China have been lifted."
He went on, "President Trump appeared more proactive in last month's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping than at this month's Group of Seven (G7) summit," emphasizing, "A structure like a Group of Two (G2) led by the United States and China is not in the strategic interest of either the United States or Asia, so I hope such a thing does not emerge."