The United States and Iran bombed each other again for three days from the 26th to the 28th, two weeks after a cease-fire, over control of the Strait of Hormuz. The two countries stopped attacking each other on the 28th local time and agreed to sit down again on the 30th in Doha, Qatar. The talks were originally set to be held in Switzerland to deal with follow-up agendas to a memorandum of understanding on Iran's nuclear program, but the clashes over the past four days changed both the venue and the agenda. Because the agreement came right after a cycle in which one side broke the truce and the other retaliated, skepticism is high over whether any deal will hold even if the talks are held.
The clash on the 26th began because the memorandum of understanding signed on the 17th of this month did not specify who would manage the Strait of Hormuz and how. Iran claims that the entire strait, both south and north, is under its jurisdiction. The United States, by contrast, sought to open a southern route along the Omani coast opposite Iran to let ships pass without going through Iran.
The southern route along Oman that the United States is pushing is not a newly carved path. Iran and Oman previously proposed a traffic separation scheme (TSS) for the Strait of Hormuz. When the International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopted it in 1968, a northern lane touching Iranian waters and a southern lane touching Omani waters had been in operation for nearly 60 years. Under the IMO evacuation plan, Iran manages the northern route and Oman manages the southern route. Citing this distinction, the United States considers the southern route outside Iran's purview. On the 18th, after lifting the blockade of Iranian ports, the U.S. Navy advised ships via the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) to "hug the Omani coast." On the 26th, it widened this route from a single lane to two-way simultaneous passage.
Iran, meanwhile, argues under the new agreement that the entire Strait of Hormuz is under its jurisdiction. On the 25th, Iran attacked the Panama-flagged oil tanker Kiku, which was passing along the Omani route, with a drone. The United States struck mainland Iran in response and carried out airstrikes for two straight days on the 27th and 28th. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said it hit Iranian targets 10 times over three days. In the early hours of the 28th, Iran escalated the intensity with retaliatory drone and missile strikes on eight U.S. targets, including the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet base in Bahrain and Kuwait's Al Salem Air Base. Damage to U.S. forces and U.S. bases was not known. In Qatar, one citizen was killed by shrapnel from a military operation.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a news conference in Baghdad, Iraq, on the 28th and said, "Authority over managing the Strait of Hormuz belongs only to Iran." He said, "Any attempt to establish a new or separate arrangement different from the method currently being carried out will only lead to additional complexity, delays in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and heightened tensions." The United States countered when U.N. Ambassador Mike Waltz appeared on "Fox News Sunday" the same day and said, "We will not allow Iran to illegally control international waterways." President Trump wrote on Truth Social on the 27th, a day earlier, that the United States could "complete the mission" militarily and that "if that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist."
With tensions rising again to the point that the two countries with talks scheduled launched military operations, it has become unclear whether discussions at the Qatar talks on the 30th will make substantive progress. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 28th quoted a U.S. official familiar with the situation as saying, "As of the 28th, the negotiations are at an impasse." Iran's state broadcaster said Mehdi Fazeli from the Office for the Publication of the Supreme Leader's Works canceled technical talks that had been scheduled for the 28th. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that "two days of U.S. airstrikes violated Article 1 of the Islamabad memorandum of understanding" and would lead to "a complete halt to all procedures."
The U.S. personnel set to sit at the negotiating table also dim the prospects for a deal. Political outlet Axios reported that Nick Stewart is expected to lead the U.S. working-level delegation. Stewart worked in the lobbying arm of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a pro-Israel think tank, before joining the office of Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. Even after joining, he consistently opposed negotiations with Iran's current regime as such. In October 2024, he said at a panel discussion, "No one in Iran's current leadership can be a trustworthy negotiating partner." He is so hawkish that he would not even recognize current President Masoud Pezeshkian—then categorized as a reformist—as a negotiating counterpart, calling him "part of an authoritarian regime."
Opposition to an agreement is also loud within Iran's leadership beyond the negotiating team. Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, said in a statement posted on X on the 28th, "We must punish the leaders of the United States and Israel who have waged war against Iran," and "We must capture these criminals and hold them accountable." Mohammad Mokhber, a Khamenei aide, said the same day, "Any attempt by the United States to control the Strait of Hormuz will be a mistake," adding, "As long as the strait is under our firm control, the United States' hegemonic ambitions will not be realized."
The Lebanon front is also a variable for the agreement. The memorandum of understanding signed on the 17th stipulates that all fronts must see fighting end before specific issues are discussed, but Israel continues to clash with Hezbollah. Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement mediated by the United States on the 26th, but Hezbollah, which was not a negotiating party, is refusing demands to disarm. On the 28th, an Israel Defense Forces soldier was killed in southern Lebanon, and citing that, the Israeli military struck southern Lebanon the same day, extending a grinding war of attrition. Iran views a cease-fire in Lebanon as a precondition for implementing the agreement with the United States, making the Lebanon situation another hurdle for U.S.-Iran talks, Fox News reported.
Hasan Amadian, a professor at the University of Tehran, told Al Jazeera that the latest clashes "could lead Iran to stop consultations with the Trump administration altogether," and warned that "if other clashes follow, it could snowball into a domino of retaliations between the United States and Iran."