The United States and Iran have agreed to halt days of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and move to follow-up talks, but concerns are growing that the "shadow war" waged through proxies could instead kick into full gear.
On the 28th, the Guardian, citing experts, reported that "Iran is highly likely to further expand support for its proxies going forward," adding, "Though to a lesser degree, activities by irregular armed groups backed by Israel and the United States will also become more active."
Hezbollah, the Lebanese armed group, is cited as Iran's most prominent proxy. Hezbollah suffered heavy losses in its protracted clashes with Israel in 2024–2025, but it still functions as a key pillar of the alliance and proxy network Iran has built across the Middle East.
One reason U.S.-Iran peace talks are faltering is the clashes between Hezbollah and Israel. From the outset of the war, Hezbollah attacked Israel, and it continued armed clashes with Israel even after the United States and Iran agreed to end military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.
Hanin Ghaddar, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a U.S. think tank, said, "Iran views the current situation as a temporary slump and believes Hezbollah will rebuild," adding, "For the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), it is absolutely critical to rebuild proxies across the Middle East and control their decision-making."
Beyond Hezbollah, Iran supports several other proxies. In this war, Yemen's Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, joined the fight, and in Iraq, Shiite militias that Iran has nurtured for more than 20 years asserted their presence, claiming they carried out dozens of drone and rocket attacks targeting U.S. facilities and Kuwait.
The United States also sought to use the Kurds, an ethnic minority in Iran, as proxies. The Kurds operate along the Iran-Iraq border region. In early March, President Donald Trump even said he was "all for it" regarding the Kurds potentially attacking Iran.
The Guardian, citing former senior Kurdish and U.S. military officials, reported that the United States had long prepared a plan to send thousands of lightly armed Kurdish fighters into northwestern Iran alongside U.S. special operations forces in the event war broke out.
However, the number of Kurdish fighters actually available was only in the hundreds, and Kurdish leadership was reportedly reluctant to cooperate due to distrust of the United States. Trump later changed his position, saying he did not want the Kurds to join the war.
Michael Milshtein, a former Israeli intelligence officer and now a researcher at Tel Aviv University, said the United States and Israel "had contacts with the Kurdish community, but it did not develop into actual cooperation."
Israel is also using proxies in Syria and the Gaza Strip. Israeli intelligence agencies are known to have provided funding, information and weapons to Druze militias in Syria. In the Gaza Strip, they are cultivating several Palestinian militias to counter Hamas.
Concerns that the Middle East war could spread into a proxy conflict are also being voiced in the Gulf states and the United States. Marco Rubio, the U.S. secretary of state, who recently completed a tour of the Middle East, stressed that for a final agreement to be reached, Iran must not only limit its nuclear program but also halt support for Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq and the Houthi rebels in Yemen.