U.S. President Donald Trump, five months before the November midterms, visited a truck plant in battleground Pennsylvania to tout his protectionist trade record. Right after tentatively ending the war with Iran, he shifted attention to the economy in what is seen as an effort to offset the inflation shock from the war and his low approval rating.
On the 23rd (local time), President Trump visited the Mack Trucks assembly plant in Lower Macungie, Pennsylvania, and delivered a speech to workers. Bloomberg and Reuters said the visit was Trump's first campaign stop since signing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran and his first campaign visit in two weeks. Trump said, "Now that the war is over, the U.S. economy is ready to soar to a level the world has never seen."
Pennsylvania's 7th District, home to Mack Trucks, is a quintessential U.S. swing region encompassing the Lehigh Valley. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report classified the race there as a "toss-up," meaning neither party can be confident of victory. The truck manufacturing setting also aligns with President Trump's trade policy highlighting a "revival of American manufacturing." Citing the tariff on autos, metals and heavy-duty trucks, Trump said, "For decades, workers here watched as globalization-minded politicians let other countries rip you off and shut your plants. I stepped in and stopped it fast."
Voters there have swung back and forth each election. In the 2020 presidential race, former President Joe Biden beat Trump, but in 2024, Trump led Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. During Trump's second term, he has made a special effort to defend the area, visiting Pennsylvania five times and the Lehigh Valley three times.
Trump endorsed Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, who is defending the district for the party. Mackenzie is a freshman who won in 2024 by a margin of just over 4,000 votes. Bloomberg cited Mackenzie's still-limited influence in the area in listing the district as among the hardest for Republicans to hold.
Republicans currently hold the House majority by a single-digit seat margin, so one seat in a swing district carries significant weight. But there is a need to bridge the gap as the economic gains Trump touts diverge from on-the-ground indicators. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), from January 2025, when Trump returned to the White House, through May, manufacturing jobs fell by 68,000, with more than 17,000 disappearing just in the automobile sector. Production of heavy-duty vehicles made by Mack Trucks is also on the decline. Federal Reserve data show U.S. truck manufacturers' monthly output for the year through May, seasonally adjusted at an annual rate, was about 242,000 units, the lowest in more than four years. At the very plant where Trump spoke, parent company Volvo Group cited tariff uncertainty in announcing last year that it would lay off hundreds across multiple facilities, including the Macungie plant.
Public opinion is also turning away. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll, Trump's approval rating was 34%, the lowest of his second term. Only 24% of respondents said the Iran war was worth the expense. As many as 63% said they doubt the cease-fire agreement will lead to lasting peace. An AP-NORC poll earlier this month found that about one-third of U.S. adults support Trump's handling of the economy.
The shift is visible in Congress as well. While Trump was speaking at the plant that day, the Senate passed, 50-48, a resolution opposing a resumption of the war with Iran. Four Republican senators joined the Democratic-led resolution. Based on this, some analysts say intra-Republican backlash against Trump has reached a new inflection point.
That does not mean Republicans are at an across-the-board disadvantage. In the United States, it is customary for a president's party to lose seats in the midterms, but assessments differ on whether that rule will apply this time. Ahead of the midterms, Trump revealed his endorsements earlier than ever in this year's Republican primaries, shaping the field in advance. Left-leaning public radio NPR analyzed on the 23rd that "Trump reshaped the GOP into a pro-Trump party by heavily backing incumbents in winnable districts to secure decisive victories." Except for the Iowa governor primary, most candidates Trump tapped advanced to the general election in key primary battlegrounds.
Republicans have also seized favorable terrain over Democrats in the fight over redrawing districts (gerrymandering), which directly affects outcomes. On Apr. 29, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a ruling in the Louisiana case that narrowly interpreted the Voting Rights Act. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) said the decision "could bolster the GOP's hold on the House." By contrast, around the same time, the Virginia Supreme Court invalidated a Democratic-backed redistricting plan on procedural grounds.
Trump on the day also floated a third-term possibility to rally the MAGA ("Make America Great Again") base. Referring to the 2024 presidential election, he said, "We won big. Maybe I have to run one more time. Should I run again?" When the crowd cheered, he said, "I'd like to." However, the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution stipulates that no one can be elected to the presidency more than twice.
It is not the first time Trump has mentioned a third term. The daily New Republic reported that Trump has repeatedly brought up a third term, and that attorney Alan Dershowitz is reportedly writing a book on that very scenario. The Trump Organization is selling "Trump 2028" hats for $55 (about 85,000 won). Given the clear legal barrier, interpretations differ over whether the remarks are a reaction to his waning influence in the party or a signal of genuine intent to run.
Republican pollster Whit Ayres told the WP on the 23rd, "In swing districts you need a lot of independents. Rallying the base while also attracting enough independents to reach a majority is a delicate balancing act," adding, "There's a reason a president's party's midterm results are closely tied to the president's job approval."