A leading conservative commentator who has supported the U.S. Republican Party for 35 years declared a split with the party. Experts said fractures have surfaced in the conservative coalition that had been held together around one person, Trump, since the Iran war settlement, and the party has entered a phase of pushing out even highly influential figures.
According to U.S. political outlet Axios on the 22nd (local time), Tucker Carlson, a former flagship host at Fox News, said on the podcast "Can't Be Censored," released on the 18th, "I'm out," adding that there is no chance he will support the Republican Party. Carlson argued the Republicans betrayed voters by prioritizing Israel's security over America's, saying, "How can American voters support a party that puts the interests of a foreign country ahead of its own citizens' interests?" Although the remarks aired on the 18th, they spread on social media on the 22nd and drew attention.
Carlson is not well known in Korea, but in the U.S. conservative camp he is regarded as the most influential influencer. After hosting a primetime show on Fox News until he was fired in 2023, he has operated the independent outlet Tucker Carlson Network and worked on X. As of March, he had 17.4 million followers on X, the most among major conservative commentators. If Charlie Kirk, a young conservative activist who was killed in a shooting last September, was an organizer who commanded campus groups and campaign networks, Carlson is closer to media power that moves public opinion and agendas.
Carlson's relationship with President Trump began to diverge long ago. The two were close as recently as 2019 during Trump's first term. After Iran shot down a U.S. military drone, President Trump weighed a retaliatory strike. But when Carlson dissuaded him, saying a war would imperil reelection, Trump canceled the attack. In the 2024 election, Carlson helped Trump's return with a Republican National Convention speech and campaign support.
The rift began in June last year when Carlson publicly opposed the possibility of U.S. military involvement in Iran. The decisive break came on Feb. 28 this year, when the United States launched a large-scale military operation against Iran. When Carlson condemned it as "disgusting and evil," President Trump pushed him away in early March, saying he had lost his way. Soon after, on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump mentioned Carlson, Candace Owens and Megyn Kelly—leading right-wing commentators—all at once, writing that they were no longer MAGA ("Make America Great Again"). Two months later, Carlson withdrew his support for the party as a whole.
MAGA is a political force originally composed of three strands: non-interventionists (America First) seeking to reduce overseas wars free from Israel's influence, pro-Israel hawks pressing Iran alongside Israel, and those personally loyal to Trump. But when the Iran war broke out, non-interventionists including Carlson peeled away. The recently concluded cease-fire deal was also seen as "humiliating" for the United States, provoking the pro-Israel hawks. Pro-Israel hawks such as Ben Shapiro and Mark Levin, and senators Bill Cassidy and Roger Wicker, protested that even after securing military superiority, the United States allowed sanctions relief and the unfreezing of funds for Iran. Carlson criticizes the Trump administration for starting the war, while the hawks attack it for failing to end the war properly, exposing the administration to fire from both sides.
Jason Zengerle, a U.S. political journalist who wrote a Carlson biography, interpreted Carlson's moves in the New Yorker on the 22nd as a product of both conviction and political calculation. He said Carlson genuinely felt betrayed by Trump's decision to go to war, while also trying to capture conservatives disappointed with the war and craft a narrative that he "kept original conservative beliefs." He also saw the possibility of Carlson himself running for president in 2028 as higher than before.
Still, it is unlikely that Republican voters will bolt en masse just because Carlson rescinded his support for the GOP. In Economist/YouGov polling in March and April this year, 83% of MAGA-leaning Republicans backed the Iran war. As of last month, nearly two-thirds—62%—of Republicans identified themselves as MAGA. The Brookings Institution said, "Even if some major MAGA figures have peeled away, most voters still support Trump."
However, some predicted the political burden of the Iran war will fall more on Vice President JD Vance, seen as the next Republican presidential contender and Trump's heir, than on President Trump. Like Carlson, Vice President Vance has represented non-interventionism, but as a key administration figure he failed to prevent the onset of the Iran war. In addition, by taking part as a key party to the armistice talks, he now appears to antiwar factions as someone who failed to stop the war, and to hawks as someone who led a compromise that made concessions to Iran. Citing experts, Axios reported that "the aftereffects of this deal could concentrate on Vice President Vance, who is being discussed in the 2028 succession lineup."