The United States and Iran are pushing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz through cease-fire talks, but warnings are emerging among U.S. intelligence agencies that Iran could close the strait again at any time.
On the 16th (local time), CNN, citing multiple sources, reported, "U.S. intelligence agencies recently assessed that Iran could effectively block passage through the Strait of Hormuz at any time going forward," adding, "This means the Iranian regime has secured a powerful new tool through this war to strike the global economy."
The United States and Iran are scheduled to hold a signing ceremony for a cease-fire memorandum of understanding (MOU) on the 19th, which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz. After the war broke out on Feb. 28, Iran effectively sealed off the strait, showcasing its control over it, and U.S. intelligence authorities believe that scenario could be replayed at any time.
A source familiar with the assessment by U.S. intelligence authorities said, "We have now effectively handed control of the strait over to Iran. That is a weapon more powerful than any nuclear weapon," adding, "This war has fundamentally changed Tehran's thinking about how to use similar tools in the future."
Another source said Iran achieved considerable results by striking the energy infrastructure of Gulf states with precision during the war, confirming that it could use this as an asymmetric asset, and added, "A Hormuz Strait blockade will become another tool Iran can use to its advantage in future negotiations."
U.S. intelligence authorities cite as the basis for these concerns the fact that Iran still holds a considerable stockpile of weapons. Even after the war, Iran was assessed to possess missiles and drones, as well as missile launchers, and hundreds of small high-speed boats that could be used to threaten ships transiting the strait or lay mines. This is in line with CNN's recent report that "Iran is rebuilding its defense industrial base faster than the United States expected and has already begun producing new drones."
There is also analysis that Iran could use not only the Strait of Hormuz but even the Red Sea, another key energy route, as leverage. Multiple sources told CNN that "in preparation for a breakdown in talks with the United States, Iran is considering an so-called 'economic nuclear option' of mobilizing Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi militants to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait."
During the cease-fire talks, allies discussed having them perform monitoring roles after the strait reopens, but no concrete implementation plan has been drawn up so far. Sources said U.S. intelligence agencies are also concerned about this.
However, U.S. intelligence authorities believe Iran would face significant blowback if it actually moved to blockade the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. As the war has shown, its top partner China and nearby Gulf states could push back strongly and take responses unfavorable to Iran.
Meanwhile, these assessments by intelligence agencies differ somewhat from the view of the Donald Trump administration. Vice President JD Vance said in a CNN interview on the 15th, "One reason Iran is trying to reach a basic agreement with the United States is that it recognizes its bargaining power through the Strait of Hormuz is weakening."
CNN assessed that "the recent assessments by U.S. intelligence authorities show the long-term impact of President Trump's decision to start the conflict without fully accounting for Iran's will to blockade the Strait of Hormuz."