U.S. President Donald Trump, who effectively wrapped up the armed clash between the United States and Iran, is moving immediately toward ending the war in Ukraine. Marking his 80th birthday, he laid the groundwork for mediation by holding back-to-back meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He is pressing to draw both countries to the peace talks table by exploiting Russia's economic limits. As global security attention swings back to Eastern Europe, the war of attrition that has dragged on for more than four years has reached a key inflection point.
According to a roundup of major media reports on the 15th (local time), President Trump spoke with President Putin for 55 minutes on the 14th and strongly stressed the need to end the war in Ukraine. In the call, President Trump signaled that a peace deal with Iran was imminent and conveyed that he was ready to help end the war in Ukraine. A U.S. delegation including Steve Witkoff is also expected to visit Russia soon. President Putin congratulated President Trump on his 80th birthday, but continued to draw a line on meeting President Zelenskyy. Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov said, "The two leaders' call was friendly and frank."
President Trump also spoke with President Zelenskyy the same day, discussing in depth ways to cement peace. President Zelenskyy suggested he was willing to meet President Putin directly at the Group of Seven summit in France on the 15th or in the United States. President Zelenskyy said, "We sent a message that we are ready to meet with Putin during the G7," adding, "Europe and the United States agreed, but Russia again showed it was not ready to talk." This is seen as assigning responsibility to the side refusing talks and building a case to demand strong support from the West if Russia does not agree to dialogue.
The end of the Iran war is a major headwind that fundamentally shakes Russia's ability to wage a long war. Since the outbreak of the Iran war, Russia has evaded Western sanctions by taking advantage of global oil price instability and maritime logistics disruptions. Western countries, fearing a surge in oil prices, knowingly could not tighten the screws strongly on transactions of Russian crude. Experts said the so-called "shadow fleet" Russia has mobilized to skirt the sanctions net will be fully exposed after the Iran war. Citing experts on the 15th, Newsweek strongly warned about the deadly fallout Middle East peace could have on Russia. Newsweek pointed out, "If the Strait of Hormuz stabilizes, Russian cargo will lose the protective shield of crisis," adding, "If oil prices fall, Western governments will have more room to pressure the shadow fleet and put Russia's shadow fleet on a blacklist."
The situation at the front is also turning increasingly unfavorable for Russia. The pace of the Russian military advance has visibly slowed. Initially, Russia's top brass pledged to fully seize the remaining unoccupied areas of Donbas by this fall. But since April, Russia's control of Ukrainian territory has contracted. Starting this month, Ukraine has been using long-range weapons to strike oil refineries deep inside Russia proper day after day. On the 12th, President Putin unusually acknowledged that Ukraine's attacks on infrastructure were damaging Russia's economy and society. According to Tass, President Putin said, "Speaking of the economy, they are certainly hurting us. But Russia is recovering quickly." In 2024, the third year of the war, the Russian government expanded the upper age limit for conscription from 27 to 30 to make up for troop losses, but even that is now insufficient.
The Institute for the Study of War, a prominent U.S. think tank, said in a recent analysis that this is causing cracks in the tacit support among residents of Russia's key cities who had tolerated the war of aggression. The institute said, "Ukraine's long-range strike campaign is reducing Russia's national productive capacity and damaging Russia's ability to operate its energy sector."
Experts said President Putin is likely to be unable to endure surging war expenses and eventually be dragged to the negotiating table. However, they expected it would be difficult for this to immediately lead to a full peace deal as in the latest U.S.-Iran case. Russia is aiming to avoid strategic capitulation, while Ukraine says it cannot stop without security guarantees. Therefore, the first meeting between the two sides is very likely to focus not on a complete end to the war but on discussing a limited cease-fire that freezes the current front lines and halts the destruction of each other's key energy facilities.
Thomas Graham, a Russia expert at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), said in a New York Times (NYT) interview, "The mood in Moscow has shifted. The battlefield situation has changed, Russia's economic problems are piling up, and political discontent is boiling," adding, "The internal discussion among Russia's leadership is focused on 'how to package the Ukraine war as a victory.'" Still, a core sticking point over security guarantees remains. Matthew Whitaker, U.S. ambassador to NATO, said in a Fox Business interview, "Ukraine has shown a willingness to freeze the lines if it receives strong security guarantees," adding, "Sanctions on Russian crude are needed to draw the Putin leadership to the negotiating table."