A U.S. outlet analyzed that the Korea men's national soccer team has a 93% chance of reaching the round of 32 after beating the Czech Republic in its first match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North and Central America.
The U.S. sports outlet The Athletic analyzed on the 12th that Korea's chance of reaching the round of 32 has risen to 93%. Among Group A, it is the second-highest figure after Mexico (98% chance of the round of 32).
The Athletic projected that if Korea wins the second match against Mexico on the 18th, advancement to the round of 32 will be virtually secured. Even with a loss to Mexico, it put the round of 32 probability at 86%.
It also forecast that even if Korea loses to Mexico, a win in the final group match against South Africa would allow advancement to the round of 32 on its own. Even in the worst case of losing both remaining matches, it assessed the probability of reaching the round of 32 at 55%.
This is tied to the expansion of the finals field to 48 teams starting with this tournament. With the group stage increased to 12 groups of four teams each, not only the top two in each group but also the eight best-performing teams among the 12 third-place finishers advance from the group stage to the round of 32, where the knockout phase begins.
In addition, when two teams are level on points in the group stage, head-to-head results are applied first to determine the standings. With Korea beating the Czech Republic, it means Korea can finish higher even if the points are the same.
Korea beat the Czech Republic 2-1 at Guadalajara Stadium in Mexico on the day. Although the Czech Republic opened the scoring early in the second half, central midfielder Hwang In-beom (Feyenoord) and forward Oh Hyun-gyu (Beşiktaş) each scored to complete the comeback.