As the top leader of Hezbollah, the pro-Iran Lebanese armed faction, was killed in an Israeli airstrike, some analysts say Hezbollah's political profile is actually growing the longer the war drags on. That is because Iran has stepped to the forefront to back Hezbollah, thrusting it back into the spotlight as a key variable in postwar negotiations.
The French daily Le Monde reported that "Hezbollah sees this war as a chance for political resurgence." Citing support for Hamas in 2023 and support from Iran in March this year, Hezbollah has clashed with Israel. Israel has taken a hard line, bombing Hezbollah military facilities across Lebanon and sending a large ground force into the south under the banner of eliminating security threats. In the process, more than 3,000 people, including Hezbollah fighters and civilians, were killed, and more than 1 million people were displaced.
The turning point was Iran's direct intervention. On the nights of the 7th to 8th, Iran fired 11 ballistic missiles toward northern Israel in retaliation for an airstrike on southern Beirut. Le Monde said, "Iran's support is becoming a crucial turning point for Hezbollah," adding, "Weakened within the Shiite community by Israel's attacks, Hezbollah is reemerging as a central actor in Lebanese and Middle Eastern affairs."
In particular, Hezbollah is wary of U.S.-led cease-fire talks proceeding without its participation. On the 3rd, under U.S. mediation, the Lebanese government agreed to the principles of a cease-fire. The conditions called for Hezbollah to halt attacks on Israel and pull its fighters north of the Litani River, but did not specify a withdrawal of Israeli forces from occupied areas in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem immediately rejected this, criticizing it as a "humiliating deal."
Paradoxically, Hezbollah is treating the very fact of recent contact with the United States as an achievement. After U.S. President Donald Trump disclosed indirect contact with Hezbollah, word within the group was that "the United States has, in the end, recognized Hezbollah as a negotiating counterpart." For Hezbollah, a military organization and a political force, merely getting its name back on the international negotiating table has allowed it to project its presence.
In fact, Hezbollah now assesses the situation more positively than in the immediate aftermath of the 2024 war. At that time, top leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed and most of the founding-generation leadership was eliminated, and it lost some 3,000 fighters. Since then, however, it is said to have rebuilt much of its military organization with help from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
There are also predictions that Hezbollah's "victory narrative" will not last long. Israel still occupies parts of southern Lebanon. Dozens of villages that formed the base of the Shiite community are effectively in ruins. Once the war ends, if residents who lost their homes begin to hold Hezbollah accountable, the current support could waver.
After the war, Israel has been ratcheting up pressure to weaken Hezbollah's influence in Lebanon. On the 10th (local time), Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a video message to the people of Lebanon, urging them to take action against Hezbollah. The same day, Israeli President Isaac Herzog sent a message in Arabic to Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, expressing a willingness to establish peace between the two countries on the condition of curbing Hezbollah's influence.
Experts say the Hezbollah issue will remain the biggest variable in Lebanese politics even after the war ends. Militarily, it has been badly wounded, but paradoxically, in the negotiating phase that will shape the postwar order, its influence is growing.