As delivery delays at Boeing and Airbus push up the average age of Chinese airlines' fleets, analysts say domestically built Chinese aircraft will absorb demand for replacing aging planes and expand their influence.
On the 8th (local time), the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that Xie Xingquan, North Asia vice president at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), said at the IATA annual meeting in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, that China's domestically developed narrow-body aircraft C919 could help the Chinese airline industry with a generational shift.
Xie said, "Orders for Airbus and Boeing aircraft have continued recently, but the current scale of aircraft replacement still has not reached the 2019 level."
Xie said, "Since 2020, the number of aircraft 20 years and older has been increasing faster than new deliveries," adding, "The replacement rate has fallen below the level needed to keep the average fleet age stable."
Delivery delays at Boeing and Airbus have been a problem for years. IATA Director General Willie Walsh noted at the annual meeting that delays by the two aircraft makers are adding about $11 billion (about 17 trillion won) to airlines' fuel expense. The average age of aircraft worldwide has now topped 15 years.
An aging fleet directly translates into higher expense for airlines. Independent aviation analyst Li Hanming said, "Older aircraft require replacement of durable components, so maintenance costs are particularly high," adding, "In accounting terms it is treated as asset depreciation, but in reality it is an expense that results in cash outflow."
In this situation, Xie said the C919 could become a new option for airlines seeking to ease supply chain problems.
Xie said, "As aircraft age, the C919 could be another option for airlines trying to alleviate supply chain issues," adding, "It could inject new vitality into the aviation industry not only in China but worldwide."
The C919 is a mid-size passenger jet developed by state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC), which began commercial operations in May 2023. It can carry up to 168 passengers and fly 5,555 km nonstop, and is known to be more than 20% cheaper than competing models Boeing 737 and Airbus A320. Its appearance is also similar to the A320, to the point that controversy arose during development that it copied the Airbus A320.
Buoyed by large orders from Chinese airlines, the C919 is rapidly expanding its market share, centered on China. COMAC delivered a total of 35 C919s from December 2022 through the first quarter of this year. Major state-owned Chinese carriers are said to have ordered about 300 C919s so far.
However, some claim the Chinese government is deliberately delaying deliveries of Airbus aircraft to boost the share of domestic jets. Bloomberg News reported on the 27th of last month, citing sources, that the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) has in recent months slowed the final approval process needed for Airbus aircraft to be brought into China and put into service, and that this is related to certification issues for COMAC's C919.
COMAC is seeking to obtain European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) certification early, and the view is that China is intentionally slowing Airbus deliveries to send a message of discontent to Europe. According to Airbus, deliveries of commercial aircraft in the first quarter of this year totaled 114, down 16% from the same period last year (136). That is the lowest since 2009.
SCMP said, "While China's civilian aircraft operations are aging rapidly, the pace of aircraft replacement is not keeping up, raising concerns that airlines' expense burdens could grow," adding, "However, some analysis suggests that expanding C919 orders could alleviate this trend."