On Feb. 28, a large-scale military operation against Iran, led by the United States and Israel, began and marked its 100th day on the 7th. With the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that is pressuring the global economy still in place, even the fragile cease-fire collapsed amid armed clashes between the two sides, plunging the situation into a stalemate. The United States, reluctant to deploy ground forces in full, and Iran, which has put forward unmanned aerial vehicles (drones), are trading localized strikes and continuing to walk a tightrope between escalation and a truce.
On the 6th (local time), according to a compilation of reports from major outlets including AP, CNN and Fox News, U.S. Central Command said it shot down four Iranian attack drones that were flying toward the Strait of Hormuz. It added that it intercepted six of seven ballistic missiles Iran fired targeting Kuwait and Bahrain. After the interceptions, U.S. forces immediately carried out retaliatory operations and struck several surveillance radar bases installed along the coasts of Goruk and Qeshm Island in Iran. The U.S. military said, "Iranian drones posed an immediate threat to maritime traffic, so we destroyed the radars in self-defense."
Iran strongly protested, calling the U.S. bombing a "clear cease-fire violation." Iran's state-run IRNA reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired missiles at Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, where a large number of U.S. troops are stationed, and at the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet based in Bahrain. The Iranian government argued that the radar facilities hit were legitimate defensive assets to protect its borders like a steel wall and to ensure safe navigation in international waters. As high-intensity armed provocations toward each other resumed, the provisional agreement that had been barely maintained since the first face-to-face talks in Pakistan last month is on the verge of being scrapped.
The White House is maintaining a hard-line stance that there will be no hasty compromise. Anna Kelly, the White House principal deputy press secretary, appeared on Fox News and said, "President Donald Trump will not rush a bad deal," adding, "The red line the United States draws is that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon." This is interpreted to mean that only if highly enriched uranium—capable of enabling nuclear weapon production in the short term—is dismantled first, can economic sanctions be eased. In addition, the U.S. Treasury is considering a plan to seize and use $24 billion in Iranian frozen funds held overseas under the pretext of helping Gulf allies recover from war damage.
As the battlefield situation became entangled, mediators, whose countries are suffering heavy war damage, moved even more busily. On the 6th, Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Raza Naqvi made a surprise visit to Tehran, Iran's capital, and held back-to-back meetings with top officials including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Qatar, which had been leading end-of-war talks behind the scenes, has stepped back, and Pakistan, which mediated the first cease-fire talks, has returned to the forefront, sending Middle East diplomacy into upheaval. With neighboring Gulf states exhausted by the prospect of escalation, attention is on whether a new peace mediation plan that Pakistan will present can unlock the tightly shut exit to end-of-war negotiations.