As a hard-right political newcomer took first place in the first round of Colombia's presidential election, attention is focusing on whether Latin America's "blue TIDE (a chain of right-wing administrations)" will continue in Colombia as well.
According to Bloomberg News and others, in Colombia's presidential election held on the 31st of last month (local time), with about 99% of ballots counted, hard-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, 48, ranked first with 43.7% of the vote. Ivan Cepeda, 64, a senator and candidate of the ruling left-wing coalition, took second with 40.9%.
Under Colombian election law, if no candidate wins a majority (50% or more) in the first round, the top two vote-getters compete in a runoff. Accordingly, the winner between the two will be decided in the runoff to be held on the 21st of next month.
Colombia has traditionally been a key U.S. ally and, unusually among Latin American countries, was governed by right-wing administrations for an extended period. But in the 2022 presidential election, current President Gustavo Petro, who has a history with a leftist guerrilla group, was elected, bringing the first left-wing government to power. If de la Espriella wins the runoff, Colombia will see a change of government again after four years.
Pre-election polls had projected de la Espriella to place second behind Cepeda. However, considering that Paloma Valencia, the candidate of the right-leaning Democratic Center, took third with 6.91% of the vote, some observers say de la Espriella holds the advantage in a head-to-head runoff.
Bloomberg News said, "With de la Espriella unexpectedly taking first place in the first round of the presidential vote, the odds have grown that the conservative outsider will become the next president."
De la Espriella, a former criminal defense attorney and a hard-right candidate, pledged during the campaign to reduce fiscal expenditure expanded by the left-wing government and cut taxes. He is taking the exact opposite line from Cepeda, who calls for sharply increasing social welfare spending and blocking the Central Bank's interest rate hikes.
De la Espriella supports tough crime crackdowns, similar to U.S. President Donald Trump. He stressed he would take a hard line rather than negotiate with criminal organizations, and he vowed to build about 10 facilities like El Salvador's mega-prison "CECOT." El Salvador's iron-fisted ruler, President Nayib Bukele, is also his "role model."
This election is seen not only as choosing Colombia's next president but also as a test to gauge the ideological landscape across Latin America. Since the early 2000s, Latin America has seen a continuing "Pink Tide" of left-wing governments that champion anti-U.S. positions and expanded welfare.
However, with inflation, economic slowdown and worsening public safety piling up recently, right-wing forces are rapidly expanding their influence. Late last year in Chile's presidential race, conservative Republican Party candidate Jose Antonio Kast defeated Communist Party candidate Janette Jara to win.
U.S. public broadcaster PBS said, "The result of the second-round runoff to be held at the end of this month is expected to lead Colombia down two very different paths," adding, "This election will serve as a kind of 'compass' to gauge changes in Latin America's political landscape." On the 7th, Peru's presidential runoff will pit right-leaning Fujimori Keiko of "Popular Force" against left-leaning Roberto Sanchez of "Together for Peru."
Analysts say the direction of Colombia's runoff will hinge on how much de la Espriella can absorb support from voters for center-right and conservative candidates, including Valencia. Anti-left sentiment could help rally the opposition, but Bloomberg News reported that Cepeda is likely to go on the offensive by portraying de la Espriella as seeking a return to policies that many Colombian voters rejected four years ago.