The Trump administration has reportedly concluded that the Cuban regime could collapse as early as this summer and has completed training on military scenarios to respond if that happens.
Axios reported on the 28th (local time), citing multiple U.S. government officials, that the Trump administration is preparing for the possible collapse of the Cuban regime and has simulated new military response plans in case of turmoil.
Trump administration officials see this summer as a turning point. In fact, in the summer of 2021, Cuba saw the largest anti-government protests in decades. At the time, the government quelled them by force, but the economic situation is now far worse than then. Axios interpreted that this summer could be the biggest crisis the Cuban regime has faced since 1959.
In preparation, U.S. government-level military operations appear to be under review. Citing a senior official, Axios reported that U.S. Southern Command, which oversees military operations in the Caribbean, recently conducted a multi-agency tabletop exercise to prepare for potential military action against Cuba. The official said, "All options are on the table, but an invasion is neither planned nor imminent," adding, "If the president gives the order, everything is ready."
Previously, President Trump and his cabinet openly argued that because Cuba is already a "failed state," it will collapse on its own and the United States will "liberate" Cuba and "take it over." Along with this, they have continued to pressure Cuba under the plan of Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Under the law, an embargo is in place, and earlier this month the United States sanctioned GAESA, a core Cuban state-run corporation, as well as foreign corporations that have transactions with it, and even arrested the sister of GAESA's director general. GAESA is known as a military-industrial complex and the Cuban regime's financial lifeline, founded 30 years ago by Raul Castro, the behind-the-scenes strongman and former Communist Party general secretary.
Meanwhile, the United States is threatening Raul Castro's safety by indicting him. A former Treasury Department official who handled Cuba sanctions predicted that direct sanctions on GAESA and secondary sanctions on corporations with transactions with it would lead to the withdrawal of the remaining foreign financial institutions and corporations in Cuba, including those from Spain, Panama, and Mexico.