As end-of-war talks between the United States and Iran enter the final stage, expectations are rising for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but some predict it could take up to several months for actual traffic to normalize and for global oil prices to stabilize.
On the 25th, the New York Times (NYT) said, "Even if a deal to reopen the waterway is reached, a complex process will follow to resolve the backlog of ships that have been stuck for nearly three months," adding, "Even if a final agreement is reached, it could take weeks, or as long as months, to recover to the level before the war, when more than 130 ships a day passed through the strait."
The Strait of Hormuz is a key shipping lane through which about 20% of the world's oil and natural gas supply passes, and it has been effectively closed since the Iran war broke out. Recently, as the United States and Iran push to sign an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore traffic to prewar levels within 30 days, expectations are growing that crude shipments could return to normal.
However, even if the strait is officially reopened soon, many variables remain before full normalization. About 1,500 ships are currently stuck in the Persian Gulf, unable to exit the Strait of Hormuz, and industry officials say safety must be ensured for these ships to pass through a strait that is only 38 kilometers wide.
Shipping data firm Kpler expects traffic to remain at 40%–50% of normal during the first three to four weeks after reopening. That is because factors that make shippers hesitate to return remain in place, including drone and missile attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels in the Red Sea and around the Suez Canal.
Lasse Kristoffersen, chief executive officer (CEO) of car shipping and logistics company Wallenius Wilhelmsen, said, "It will take at least 30–45 days for the situation to be completely stable," adding, "The very fear that attacks could recur is what is paralyzing trade."
Beyond safety issues, administrative procedures to resume passage are also cited as significant hurdles. According to the NYT, shipping companies must confirm which tankers can start operating first and whom to ask for passage permits. They also need pilotage guidance, and the threat of mines laid in the strait must be eliminated for normal navigation to be possible.
Jakob Larsen, head of maritime safety and security at the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO), said that before ships pass through the strait, whose narrowest section is only 21 nautical miles (about 38 kilometers), they must first confirm how passage criteria will be set, adding, "We need to know which routes we should use, and which authorities to coordinate with and what permits to obtain."
The factor ships fear most is mines installed by Iran. British military officials said some of the mines laid by Iran sit on the seabed and release bubbles that can cause serious damage to a ship's hull. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report this month that it would take weeks for the navies of several countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, to deploy mine countermeasure vessels.
With operations halted for an extended period, the condition of the ships themselves has also emerged as a variable. Because the ships have remained for a long time in the warm waters of the Persian Gulf, various marine organisms such as barnacles and seaweed have attached to their hulls.
Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of Hapag-Lloyd, the world's fifth-largest container shipping company, said on a recent company podcast that only one ship was able to depart during the blockade, and even that ship had to undergo extensive cleaning to resume operations. He said, "Even after removing the marine growth on the hull, we found that the ship's top speed was much slower than usual."
Some are skeptical that talks to reopen the strait will conclude. Ami Daniel, CEO of maritime intelligence company Windward, said, "We have to see when the signing will actually be completed," noting that differences remain between U.S. and Iranian authorities. Daniel said that even if President Trump declares the strait open, corporations are likely to remain cautious, adding that there were two similar cases in the past.