With three months left before the Iran war is set to begin, Qatar has volunteered to mediate between the United States and Iran. It is the third mediator after Oman and Pakistan. Oman opened the door to talks between the United States and Iran in the early days of the war, and Pakistan later mediated the first cease-fire proposal. Qatar is expected to focus on agendas such as control of the Hormuz sea lanes, handling of Iran's frozen funds, and management of nuclear material.
On the 25th (local time), according to Al Jazeera, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament and head of the negotiating team, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati held talks in Doha with the Qatari prime minister. CNN, citing a diplomatic source familiar with the Doha meeting that day, said, "The discussions that day treated navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, handling of Iran's frozen funds, and stocks of highly enriched uranium as a single package."
Before Qatar, the first country to break the ice for dialogue between the United States and Iran was Oman. Oman maintained a secret channel between the United States and Iran starting in 2013 under the Bush administration. The private U.S.-Iran talks held in 2013 in Muscat, Oman's capital, led to the 2014 Geneva interim agreement and then to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Iran nuclear deal. In April last year, during indirect nuclear talks between the United States and Iran in Muscat, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi did not sit face to face, and Oman's foreign minister shuttled between two rooms.
However, experts said Oman lacks the capital strength to handle macro agendas such as Strait of Hormuz passage, crude oil and LNG exports, and frozen funds all at once, and its share in the energy market is negligible. According to the World Bank, Oman's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 is $107 billion (about 162 trillion won), less than half of Qatar's $218 billion (about 330 trillion won) and Pakistan's $338 billion (about 512 trillion won). Al Jazeera, citing experts, said, "Omani diplomacy is strong in the back-channel realm where it can save face, but at the implementation stage—such as guaranteeing fund transfers or maritime safety—a separate guarantor state is needed."
Pakistan is the country that most actively mediated the first cease-fire. Since the outbreak of the war, Pakistan has conveyed messages between the United States and Iran at least six times. Key administration figures such as Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the foreign minister have contacted countries across the Middle East more than 30 times. Pakistan is a Muslim-majority country that shares nearly 1,000 kilometers of border with Iran. Because it does not host a U.S. military base, it is one of the rare countries that does not appear to be "on the U.S. side" from Iran's perspective. Pakistan showed enthusiasm for mediation to the extent of proposing to the United States and Iran a two-step core cease-fire plan of an immediate truce followed by a comprehensive agreement.
However, experts also assessed that it would be difficult for Pakistan to handle Iran's frozen funds or the Hormuz sea lanes and nuclear agenda. Pakistan is currently under an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout, and in 2024 its foreign reserves at one point fell to $8 billion (about 12 trillion won), pushing it to the brink of a currency crisis. With its own economy in crisis, it has no fiscal capacity to accept or guarantee funds that would circumvent U.S. Treasury sanctions. It is a landlocked country 1,200 kilometers from the Strait of Hormuz, making it far removed from the sea-lane issue. Al Jazeera said, "From mid-May, both Iran's leadership and the Trump administration in succession rejected proposals that came through Pakistan," adding, "As the United States and Iran began to use other channels such as Oman or Qatar, Pakistan's role receded."
By contrast, Qatar is a resource-rich country that currently holds Iran's frozen funds directly. It also has recent experience mediating between the United States and Middle Eastern powers. Through the 2020 Doha agreement, Qatar mediated the 19-year war between the United States and the Taliban. In December 2023, Qatar also mediated a U.S.-Venezuela hostage exchange. In August 2023, when the United States and Iran swapped five hostages, Qatar transferred $6 billion (about 9.1 trillion won) in Iranian oil proceeds that had been stuck in Korea to a Qatari account. The Qatari Central Bank currently serves as the payment gateway controlling these funds, taking responsibility to ensure the U.S. Treasury allows them to be used only for humanitarian items such as medicines and food.
These funds were re-frozen by the United States immediately after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Iran International, citing a source familiar with the negotiations, said, "As a precondition for a first-stage memorandum of understanding (MOU), Iran is demanding that the United States guarantee access to $12 billion (about 18.17 trillion won) tied up in Qatar." The biggest sticking points in the current first-stage U.S.-Iran MOU are the issue of abandoning nuclear capabilities and whether to open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's position is "open the strait if the money comes first," while the United States counters that it "will release the money only after confirming the strait is open and nuclear material is removed."
For the United States, Qatar is virtually the only detour that allows it to control fund flows without handing cash directly to Iran. Under tough U.S. sanctions, Iran is short of foreign currency it can use immediately. Considering administrative procedures and domestic political backlash, the United States cannot easily release Iran's frozen funds right away.
The Financial Times (FT) reported that an option under discussion would have mediator Qatar lend to Iran first, and once compliance with the agreement is verified, the United States would unlock the frozen account so Qatar can recoup the loan. Political analyst Shahrier Shahid-Saless said this "is a structure that can meet Iran's core demands while allowing the Trump administration to avoid the optics of handing cash directly to Iran's leadership." This is interpreted as Qatar intending to serve as a kind of financial buffer zone while mediating.
Qatar's interests swing widely depending on whether there is a cease-fire. Qatar, along with Australia, vies for No. 1 and No. 2 in global LNG exports. According to Reuters, about 20% of global LNG trade before the war passed through the Strait of Hormuz, and a substantial portion of that was Qatar's exports. But since the war began and Iran effectively blockaded the strait, Qatar's LNG export vessels have been halted. According to Qatar's government accounts, the LNG and crude oil sectors account for more than half of GDP. If Hormuz remains closed, Qatar becomes not a beneficiary of higher energy prices but a victim bearing export disruptions.
From the U.S. perspective, Qatar is effectively the only mediator that can communicate with Iran while also fitting within the U.S. security architecture in the Middle East. Qatar is a major non-NATO ally of the United States, and Al Udeid Air Base near Doha is the largest U.S. military facility in the Middle East. About 10,000 U.S. troops are currently stationed in Qatar. From Iran's perspective as well, Qatar is seen as the optimal conduit to resolve frozen funds and the Hormuz sea-lane issue simultaneously while avoiding the appearance of making direct concessions to the United States.