As reports continued on the 24th (local time) that the United States and Iran were nearing the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the war, Iran's leadership soon hit back head-on, saying there would be "no deal to abandon nuclear arms." With the two countries falling into last-minute conflicting aims over a cease-fire plan, turbulence is expected until the final signature.
AP, The New York Times (NYT), Axios, CNN and other major U.S. outlets reported that the two countries had in principle agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and eliminate Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium. If the memorandum takes effect, an additional 60-day truce will follow, Iran will freely export crude oil, and talks to scale back the nuclear program will proceed on a separate track. Several billion dollars of Iran's overseas frozen asset will also be unfrozen in stages.
The core sticking point in the talks is whether to dispose of Iran's 60% highly enriched uranium. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimates Iran holds about 441 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium. From there, Iran is only one technical step away from possessing 90% weapons-grade uranium. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi estimates Iran could build more than 10 nuclear warheads if it further enriches. It is believed that 200 kilograms—about half of the enriched uranium—are buried in underground tunnels at the Isfahan nuclear facility. The United States is demanding that this stockpile be diluted or shipped out to a third country such as Russia.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, "It's not final, but we made significant progress in the negotiations," adding, "The world will no longer need to fear Iran's possession of nuclear weapons." Minister Rubio added that three agendas would be addressed: as phase one, full reopening of the strait; as phase two, a pledge of non-possession of nuclear weapons, long-term limits on enrichment capacity, and disposal of highly enriched uranium. Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian also responded on state television, saying, "We are ready to assure the world that we are not pursuing nuclear weapons."
But the mood inside Iran is not monolithic. While President Pezeshkian, who is leading talks with the United States on behalf of the Iranian government, and the Foreign Ministry are broadening common ground with Washington, the hard-line camp centered on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is strongly opposing shipping out nuclear stockpiles and yielding control over Hormuz. Experts pointed to structural turmoil within Iran's leadership as the reason U.S. reports and Iranian statements diverged head-on the same day.
The hard-line Fars News Agency said the same day, "Some U.S. media and officials claim that 'Iran has tentatively agreed with the United States to reduce its nuclear stockpiles and halt nuclear facilities,' but there is no basis for that in the final draft of the agreement." The outlet stressed that all nuclear-related issues were postponed for 60 days of negotiations after the document is signed, and that there was no clause guaranteeing free navigation in Hormuz.
Pro-Iran outlets close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) went a step further. Pro-hardline outlets such as Tasnim and Mehr said, "Passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be restored to prewar levels gradually over 30 days under Iran's supervision," adding, "Control of the strait will remain with Iran." Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei also said, "The two sides are narrowing differences, but the issue of unfreezing frozen assets must be resolved clearly first."
As a deal that had seemed imminent receded again, U.S. President Donald Trump also stepped back. Trump instructed the negotiating team on Truth Social not to "rush to an agreement" the same day. He added, "Both sides should take their time and do it right," and said he would keep the maritime blockade of Iranian vessels "in full effect" until a deal is signed.
AP, citing a U.S. official familiar with the talks, reported that a formal signing would not take place on the 24th. The official said that even if U.S. and Iranian working-level teams agree, approval would be needed from President Trump and Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, and that process could take several days. Although Mojtaba agreed in broad terms, analysts said it remains hard to predict the final terms or whether Mojtaba's side will formally sign the agreement.
Trump also said, "If we make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper agreement, the exact opposite of the talks under former President Barack Obama," making clear he intends to extract concessions beyond the level of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on social media that he and President Trump "agreed that any final deal with Iran must eliminate the nuclear threat."
David Albright, former U.N. nuclear inspector and head of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), said in an interview with Israel's Channel 12, "If you just take out the highly enriched uranium and wrap up a deal, that sets a bad precedent," adding, "The goal should be to remove the entire 10 tons of enriched uranium that Iran possesses." The analysis is that unless low- and medium-enriched uranium between 2% and 20% are disposed of along with the 440 kilograms of 60% material, it will only buy Iran time to return to weapons-grade enrichment.