With memories of the COVID-19 pandemic still fresh, fear of viruses has resurfaced around the world. Reports of deadly, localized infectious disease outbreaks are coming in daily, from Ebola sweeping the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, to Andes hantavirus spreading on a South American cruise ship, to yellow fever and Oropouche virus in the Americas.
Amid concerns that "another pandemic may be coming," international public health experts said the recent surges of localized infectious diseases are far from the kind of newly emerged, unidentified pathogens like COVID-19. They agreed with the analysis that this is closer to the result of surveillance systems in poor countries—systems that discovered and blocked outbreaks before they spread—collapsing in tandem with major advanced countries' aid cuts.
According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on the 21st (local time), by preliminary 2025 official development assistance (ODA) statistics, ODA by members and associate members of the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) was $174.3 billion (about 261 trillion won), down 23.1% from last year. It is the largest drop on record. In particular, U.S. aid plunged 56.9%. The United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan, and France accounted for 95.7% of the total decline last year. ODA is not a health-only budget, but sanitation, food, and humanitarian support—the prerequisites for disease control—all come from this budget. A decrease in ODA is a signal that the money donor countries pour into low-income countries is simultaneously being pulled out, commonly interpreted to mean the foundation of public health systems is shaking.
Even looking only at health, the shock from aid cuts is significant. The World Health Organization (WHO) projected that external health aid will decline 30%–40% in 2025 compared with 2023. In particular, among 108 low- and middle-income countries vulnerable in health and sanitation, some said in a WHO survey they would scale back core services such as vaccination, disease surveillance, and health emergency responses by up to 70% this year. Fifty countries reported laying off health workers or halting related training. The capacity to support every step—from early detection to isolation and contact tracing—the first button in responding to infectious diseases, has shrunk.
This trend is clear in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where the spread of the Ebola virus is currently most intense. Ebola is a familiar disease in Congo. The Washington Post (WP) said Congo's health workers have faced Ebola 17 times over the past 50 years. But this time, there are pleas that, unlike transfer, there are "no resources" to respond. The United States provided $1.4 billion (about 2.11 trillion won) to Congo in 2024. The aid fell to $430 million (about 650 billion won) last year, nearly cut to a quarter. This year it has dropped to $21 million (about 32 billion won). In two years, 98.5% has disappeared. The United Kingdom and Germany also reduced medical aid to eastern Congo during the same period.
Atul Gawande, who served as a senior official at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) under the Joe Biden administration, told WP, "When Ebola broke out in 2022, the spread was contained within 48 hours and there was only one death," adding, "This time, it is highly likely the virus has already been circulating for months, and the response will take that much longer." The WHO declared a public health emergency of international concern on the 17th. At the time of the declaration on the 17th, the Congo government tallied eight confirmed cases, 246 suspected cases, and 80 suspected deaths. But by the 21st, four days later, suspected cases jumped to 600 and deaths to 139. In five days, deaths rose by nearly 60%.
The Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, which is driving the current outbreak, has no approved vaccine or treatment. Other than finding cases quickly and isolating them, there are few viable options. But with aid from advanced countries dried up, there is not enough expense to set up safe isolation camps. The International Rescue Committee (IRC) said, "As the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany cut funding, about 60% of health facilities at the epicenter of the outbreak closed last year," adding, "Unstable security and budget cuts have produced a storm of consequences." The charity Mercy Corps said projects to improve water pipes and pumps in North and South Kivu provinces were halted due to the suspension of USAID support, putting about 1.2 million people at risk of losing safe drinking water.
According to the WHO, the United States accounted for about 50% of international tuberculosis aid from 2015 to 2024, but $1.4 billion—11% of the originally allocated amount—was cut from Global Fund subsidies for 2024–2026. The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimated that if U.S. support for the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is permanently halted, there could be 6.6 million additional new infections and 4.2 million acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-related deaths from 2025 to 2029.
As the United States, which accounts for the largest share of health aid, stepped back, other countries followed suit. The United Kingdom decided to lower its aid expenditure share from 0.5% of gross national income (GNI) to 0.3% by 2027. The reduced amount is 6.2 billion pounds (about 11.47 trillion won). That is similar to the defense spending (6.7 billion euros) that neighboring France decided to increase during the same period. In its 2026 budget bill, France cut ODA by 700 million euros (about 1.22 trillion won), about 16%, while increasing defense spending by 6.7 billion euros (about 11.7 trillion won). Germany also reduced ODA 10.4%, from 11.5 billion euros (about 20 trillion won) in 2024 to 10.3 billion euros (about 17.9 trillion won) in 2025. Germany said it increased defense spending to meet the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) defense expenditure standard and to respond to the Ukraine and Middle East fronts, providing the rationale for reducing aid.
Experts do not believe the cited viruses will immediately escalate into a second COVID pandemic. Ebola is transmitted only through contact with bodily fluids, and human-to-human transmission of Andes hantavirus is extremely limited. A vaccine exists for yellow fever. However, if the first safety net that filters patients in the community is cut, detection of infectious diseases is delayed, and expense grows exponentially through in-hospital infections and cross-border movement. Tom Frieden, former Director General of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said, "The U.S. withdrawal from the WHO and staff cuts at the CDC and USAID have slammed the global health system three times in a row."