CNN reported on the 21st local time that U.S. intelligence agencies assessed Iran is restoring its defense industry base, hit by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, faster than expected and has already resumed some drone production.
According to CNN, the U.S. government believes Iran has been rapidly repairing missile bases and launchers and key weapons production facilities since the cease-fire that began in early April. One official said some intelligence assessments even project that "Iran could fully restore its drone attack capability in as little as six months," adding, "It has exceeded all the restoration timelines the U.S. intelligence community (IC) anticipated."
Accordingly, there are concerns that if President Donald Trump resumes military operations against Iran, Iran could again pose a major threat to U.S. allies in the Middle East. While Iran's missile production capacity has weakened compared with before the war, if fighting resumes it could expand drone attacks to keep pressuring Israel and the Gulf states.
Trump has repeatedly warned that he could resume military action if a U.S.-Iran end-of-war agreement falls through. CNN said that given Iran's recent pace of restoration, questions are being raised about the Trump administration's earlier claim that the U.S.-Israeli airstrikes since Feb. 28 dealt a crippling blow to Iran's military.
U.S. intelligence is also focusing on the possibility that China and Russia helped Iran restore its military capabilities faster than expected. Sources said China continued supplying Iran with components that could be used in missile manufacturing even during the war.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a recent interview that China is providing Iran with missile manufacturing parts. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs countered that this was "a claim not based on facts."
U.S. intelligence further assessed that Iran still maintains a significant level of ballistic missiles, drones, and air defenses. CNN explained this means the restoration did not start from a completely destroyed state.
Earlier, CNN reported that U.S. intelligence had assessed that about half of Iran's missile launchers survived after U.S. airstrikes. In recent assessments, the survival rate has been revised up to about two-thirds. Sources said this is because the cease-fire gave Iran time to unearth and service previously buried launchers.
At the same time, thousands of drones—about half of Iran's drone force—are still intact, and a considerable number of coastal defense cruise missiles also remain operational. These missiles are considered key assets that allow Iran to threaten ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, Brad Cooper, the head of U.S. Central Command overseeing U.S. forces in the Middle East, said in Congress on the 19th that "90% of Iran's defense industrial base has been destroyed and will be difficult to rebuild for years." But CNN reported that this description differs somewhat from internal assessments by U.S. intelligence.