The Donald Trump administration is turning up the pressure by indicting Raúl Castro, a Cuban revolutionary elder and former president of the Council of State, employing what it calls a "Venezuela strategy." But some say Cuba is unlikely to capitulate to the United States as Venezuela did.
Earlier, on the 20th (local time), the U.S. Department of Justice held a news conference and said it had indicted six people, including Raúl Castro. They are accused of involvement in the 1996 downing of two aircraft operated by a Cuban exile group, which killed four people. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said, "If convicted, former Chairman Castro could face the death penalty or life in prison."
Observers say the United States is deploying a "Venezuela strategy" against Cuba. On the day it indicted Raúl, the Trump administration deployed a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group to the Caribbean, a move seen as similar to Washington's pressure campaign on Venezuela. The New York Times (NYT) said the move "suggests the United States may be paving the way for Castro's ouster with military force," adding it "resembles the approach once used to justify an arrest operation by indicting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro."
However, many believe the chances of a Venezuela-style regime change taking hold in Cuba are low. First, it would be difficult to arrest Raúl Castro the way the United States apprehended President Nicolás Maduro and brought him to the United States. Born on June 3, 1931, Raúl is 95 years old this year. Foreign media said that even if Raúl Castro were arrested, it would likely be hard to achieve the kind of dramatic political effect seen with Maduro's arrest.
Adam Isacson, a regional expert at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), a U.S. human rights group, said, "In some ways, it might be easier to bring Raúl to the United States." But he also noted that removing him, who stepped down from the presidency in 2018, would likely have little impact on the Cuban government as a whole.
Another difference is that Cuba has no figure like Delcy Rodríguez, the Venezuelan interim president who was once a close aide to Maduro but has maintained a cooperative relationship with the Trump administration. Jorge Castañeda, a former Mexican foreign minister who has written books on revolutionary Che Guevara, told the WSJ, "It doesn't look like the United States can find 'Cuba's Delcy' in Havana," adding, "Castro is the kind of person who would pick up a gun himself rather than surrender."
Michael Shifter, former head of the Inter-American Dialogue, a think tank, also told the BBC, "No one like Delcy Rodríguez stands out in Cuba," adding, "Cuba's power structure is different from Venezuela's." Unlike Venezuela, where anti-government protests were frequent, Cuba is a country with strong totalitarian tendencies, and the Castro camp has had complete control of the military for half a century, he said.
Analysts also say the scenario President Trump pledged—Cuba's system collapsing from within—is unlikely. The economy may collapse, but the state system itself could endure. Citing experts, the BBC said, "Even amid severe economic hardship, much of the Cuban government's social control mechanisms remain in place," adding, "If the Cuban system collapses and a large number of refugees flee, especially if many Cubans head to the United States, that could instead become a burden for the Trump administration."