As international oil prices surged due to the prolonged war in Iran, countries across Africa moved to raise fuel prices, triggering anti-government protests in many places. As demonstrations intensified, some countries even rolled back the price hikes.
On the 20th (local time), the Financial Times of the United Kingdom reported, "As the economic shock of the Middle East war has begun to be fully felt by consumers in sub-Saharan Africa, diesel and gasoline prices at gas stations have jumped in recent weeks," adding, "The deepening energy crisis is causing serious disruption across the African continent."
In Kenya, protests erupted on the 14th after the government released a plan to raise diesel prices by 23.5% from previous levels. According to Reuters, Kipchumba Murkomen, Kenya's Interior Minister, said at a press conference on the 19th that four people were killed and more than 30 were injured in the protests.
In the Indian Ocean island nation of Comoros, after the government released plans to raise fuel prices, protests and bloody clashes broke out nationwide, leading authorities to withdraw the hike on the 16th. Earlier, citing a surge in international oil prices due to the war, the Comoros government had said it would raise diesel prices by 46% and gasoline prices by 35%.
In Maputo, the capital of Mozambique, the government raised diesel prices by 46% on the 7th, prompting bus drivers to go on strike and effectively paralyzing the city. In Ethiopia and Zambia as well, gasoline prices rose by up to 26% around the same time, spreading public backlash against surging fuel costs across Africa.
In the early days of the war, many African countries absorbed part of the oil shock through government subsidies. The Kenyan government also injected more than £200 million (about 200 billion won) over the past two months to stabilize fuel prices. But as fiscal capacity reached its limits and subsidies became harder to maintain, governments moved one after another to raise fuel prices.
With high oil prices expected to persist for the time being, political and economic instability in Africa is likely to grow. Analysts say a major blow to the broader economy is inevitable, especially as many countries face fragile fiscal conditions. Malawi, one of Africa's poorest countries, has exhausted its strategic fuel reserves and has moved to sell gold holdings to secure foreign currency.
Mark Russell, CEO of Puma Energy, which operates more than 700 gas stations in Africa, said, "There is a strong possibility that the phase of prolonged high oil prices will continue for the time being, and this situation is likely to persist for the next few months."
The economic outlook is also bleak. Razia Khan, chief economist at Standard Chartered Bank, said, "We had expected Africa's growth rate to reach 4.3% this year, but the situation has changed," adding, "What is worrying is that this crisis could heighten inflationary pressures." The FT reported that rising fuel costs are adding further strain to the creditworthiness of African countries that are already on the brink of default or deemed in need of emergency support from the International Monetary Fund.