The European Union (EU) has moved to mobilize even elder statespeople who have left politics to reopen a dialogue channel with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who served as president of the European Central Bank (ECB), and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who led Germany for 16 years, are said to have emerged as strong candidates for Russia envoy.
It is seen as a response to the sense of crisis that Europe could be entirely sidelined as U.S. President Donald Trump leads peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. Experts said it is an attempt based on the judgment that the EU must have its own diplomatic card toward Russia to avoid being dragged into U.S.-led negotiations.
According to the Financial Times (FT) in the United Kingdom on the 20th (local time), foreign ministers of EU member states plan to coordinate for the first time next week in Cyprus on the suitability of a slate of joint envoy candidates to send to President Putin. The very next month's EU summit will take it up as a formal agenda item. European Council President António Costa said earlier this month that he is "preparing for potential dialogue with President Putin."
The EU shut all official communication channels with the Kremlin immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine in Feb. 2022. Aside from a few attempts by some member state leaders to make occasional hotline calls, the EU-level dialogue channel has been cut for more than four years. In contrast, the United States has maintained a direct line with President Putin since the launch of the second Trump administration. President Trump has said multiple times that he spoke directly with Putin to coordinate a Ukraine cease-fire plan. In the meantime, among European leaders, concerns have grown that even if the United States and Russia resume talks, they could strike a deal unfavorable to their own security over Europe's head.
The United States is currently unable to focus on Ukraine talks as it is pouring its diplomatic resources into the Israel-Iran war in the Middle East. President Putin has effectively stalled peace talks by insisting on ceding Ukrainian territory as a precondition. The Trump administration conveyed to the EU that it "does not object to Europe talking separately with Putin in parallel with U.S. negotiations."
A joint envoy selected by the EU would carry the EU's conditions for ending the Ukraine war, agreed by its 27 member states, and its demands on Russia, and negotiate directly with President Putin. The strongest card at this point is former Prime Minister Draghi. Draghi is a technocrat who served as ECB president from 2011 to 2019 and steered the eurozone through a sovereign debt crisis. Notably, he met with President Putin while serving as Italy's prime minister from 2021 to 2022, just before Russia invaded Ukraine. In June 2022, he visited Kyiv and held talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and he strongly pushed for granting Ukraine EU candidate status. Italian media reported that "Prime Minister Draghi did not yield to Russian pressure to weaponize gas supplies during a May 26, 2022 call with President Putin."
Ukraine also appears to welcome Draghi as an EU envoy. Citing a senior Ukrainian government official, the FT reported that President Zelenskyy said, "A figure like Draghi, or a strong leader currently in office, should represent Europe." President Zelenskyy plans to discuss the same issue with the leaders of France, Germany and the United Kingdom this week.
The next candidate following Draghi is former Chancellor Merkel. Merkel served as Germany's chancellor for 16 years from 2005 to 2021 and is a politician with the longest track record in Europe of negotiating with President Putin. Merkel, who hails from the former East Germany, speaks fluent Russian. But her weaknesses are also clear. She has been assessed as having been too close to Putin during her tenure. While in office, Merkel pushed the Nord Stream project, a direct Baltic Sea pipeline for Russian natural gas, and as of 2021, 55% of Germany's gas consumption and 34% of its oil consumption were supplied by Russia. Immediately after the 2022 invasion, Russia weaponized this dependence by cutting gas supplies, plunging Europe as a whole into an energy crisis.
President Putin also often showed a lack of respect for Merkel. A representative anecdote is that in January 2007, at a meeting in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi, he brought his black Labrador, Koni, despite knowing that Merkel was afraid of dogs. In her memoir "Freedom," Merkel wrote, "I could tell from President Putin's expression that he was enjoying the situation." Because of this track record, there is strong resistance to putting forward Merkel as an envoy even within Germany. A lawmaker from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) told the FT that the idea of presenting Merkel as a negotiator was "nonsense." Merkel herself also drew a line on the 18th when asked about the possibility of serving as an envoy at a conference, saying, "Someone else would be more suitable."
Russia has publicly said that President Putin prefers former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, Merkel's immediate predecessor. President Putin said he is willing to talk "with a European representative who has not spoken ill of us," and mentioned by name "my longtime friend Schröder." Schröder joined the Nord Stream consortium's board immediately after leaving office in 2005 and received a high salary. He has maintained ties with Putin even after the Ukraine war and is criticized within Germany. European governments and Ukraine rejected him outright.
Former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö is also being mentioned as a candidate. Niinistö is one of the very few European politicians who maintained a working relationship with President Putin. However, after the Ukraine war, Finland abandoned the military neutrality it had adhered to since 1948 and joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). A senior EU official said, "Niinistö is one of the few Europeans who established a working relationship with Putin," but added, "Russia is very angry with Finland right now." Within the EU, there is also said to be an opinion that someone from Western Europe, who carries less historical baggage than Eastern European member states with deep historical entanglements with Russia, would be suitable. A senior European official told the FT, "It should be someone from a country like the Netherlands or Portugal that does not have the resentments held by Eastern European states."
The Russian response is mixed. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that day, "We hope a practical approach prevails and has some effect on reality," adding, "President Putin is a phone call away for European countries." Some Russian officials predicted that Putin may prefer bilateral talks with major powers rather than accept an EU joint envoy proposal that bundles together the demands of 27 member states. While the EU wrangles over selecting an envoy, President Putin met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on the 20th.