The United States has begun work to reduce the U.S. troops it promised to send to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the event of war or a major crisis.
Cutting 5,000 U.S. troops stationed in Germany or canceling rotational deployments to Poland was a peacetime unit operation issue. Now, even in an actual war, the share that the United States agreed to shoulder will itself shrink. Analysts said it is a signal that the United States is stepping back from being the mainstay of Europe's defense to being a nuclear umbrella provider.
On the 19th, Reuters quoted three sources familiar with the matter as saying, "The Trump administration decided this week to scale back U.S. capabilities to be mobilized for Europe's defense in the event of a crisis for NATO allies." The United States conveyed this policy to allies at a NATO defense policy chiefs meeting held in Brussels, Belgium, that day.
NATO maintains a roster of troops and equipment that member states have pledged to pull immediately when a member faces war or a crisis. This is called the NATO Force Model. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, NATO created this system at the subsequent Madrid summit. NATO members must pre-register how many troops they will send within days if war breaks out and how much military equipment they will mobilize. If an actual crisis hits, NATO plans to call up and deploy the pledged forces in order according to this roster.
According to NATO, the roster is divided into three tiers by speed. If a crisis such as war breaks out, NATO will deploy 100,000 troops within 10 days as a rapid response force. The second tier secures 300,000 troops available between 10 and 30 days. The roster indicates that 500,000 troops can be mobilized within 30 to 180 days.
Among these, the United States took the lead in the first-tier rapid response force that would be deployed to the battlefield first if war breaks out. The rapid response force includes carrier strike groups, bombers, aerial refuelers, strategic airlifters, and reconnaissance satellites to overwhelm the opponent in the opening phase. Many of these are advanced assets that European members would struggle to field without the United States. If the United States reduces its share on this roster, the number of U.S. forces that automatically join the war will decline even if the peacetime U.S. troop presence is maintained. It is interpreted to mean that U.S. support, which should pour into Europe in the first few days of a crisis, will be reduced from the stage of prior commitments.
In the United States, the Office of the Deputy Undersecretary of the Ministry of National Defense for policy led this policy under Elbridge Colby. Vice Minister Colby is the key figure who crafted the second Trump administration's defense strategy. Colby has consistently argued that the second Trump administration's defense strategy should concentrate U.S. resources on checking China. His consistent view is that more of the conventional defense burden in Europe should be shifted to European allies.
However, Vice Minister Colby said on the 19th that "even if European allies take the lead in conventional forces, the United States will continue to use nuclear weapons to protect NATO members." It is interpreted to mean that while Europe should take on more of the conventional war burden of facing Russian ground forces, the United States will continue to provide the nuclear umbrella. Reuters said, "Adjusting the NATO Force Model has emerged as a core task for Colby's team ahead of the NATO summit in Türkiye in July."
European allies pushed back immediately. NATO members are accelerating implementation of the defense expenditure target agreed at the 2025 Hague summit. Poland and the three Baltic states have boosted ground warfare capabilities since the 2022 Ukraine war. Poland is already spending 4.48% of GDP on defense. Although the absolute amount is smaller than the United States' 3.2%, the ratio is higher. Germany, separate from the Latvia multinational brigade led by fellow NATO member Canada, is building a new brigade in Lithuania. Germany is now using 100 billion euros (about 156 trillion won) as a special fund to expand military capabilities.
However, even if defense expenditure increases immediately, it appears it will take considerable time from delivery of forces to be committed to war to actual deployment. The 105 Leopard 2 A8 tanks ordered by Germany are not scheduled to be fully delivered until 2030. Considering production backlogs and the training of pilots and maintenance crews, it will take years to operationalize fighter jets and air defenses. In particular, dependence on the United States remains absolute in key areas such as long-range precision strike, strategic lift, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, aerial refueling, command and control, air defenses, and ammunition stockpiles. Pierre Vandier, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, said at a Brussels press conference on the 19th, "On speed, quantity, software, drones, electronic warfare, space, and data, we have a lot to do," adding, "Doing much more than now is not enough."